Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction: Cotton Bowl Preview

Why Miami Will Win the Cotton Bowl

Miami certainly relished the underdog role in the first round and will do so again on Wednesday night. The Hurricanes are nearly a 10-point underdog, so expect Cristobal and his staff to use that as motivation for a team that already entered the playoff with something to prove.

In addition to motivation, Miami’s defense can carry Cristobal’s team to another upset. Ohio State’s skill talent and quarterback setup is better than the one Texas A&M brought to the first-round game. However, led by linemen Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, the ‘Canes could simply control this contest through the trenches. The Buckeyes had trouble with Indiana’s front and struggled to establish the run in that matchup, which limited the offense to just 10 points. If Bain and Mesidor dominate in the trenches, keep Ohio State’s ground game in check, and get the passing attack in long-yardage situations, Miami has a chance to slow the Buckeyes and pull off another upset. 

If Miami’s defense controls the trenches and limits Ohio State on the scoreboard, Cristobal won’t need much out of his offense to book a trip to the semifinals. Quarterback Carson Beck threw for only 103 yards in the win over Texas A&M. However, he threw zero interceptions and completed 70 percent of his passes. Beck needs more production for the ‘Canes to advance, especially with a big play or two going to standout true freshman receiver Malachi Toney. 

Ohio State’s defensive front has been a brick wall this season, so it’s unlikely Miami can generate the big plays on the ground that it did against Texas A&M. However, if running back Mark Fletcher can churn out tough yardage behind the ‘Canes standout offensive line, Cristobal’s offense can at least generate enough production to keep the Buckeyes honest up front.

Miami needs a few breaks to pull off the upset. However, the Hurricanes can match Ohio State’s strength in the trenches, while Beck’s veteran leadership and Toney’s big-play ability give Cristobal’s team a chance to make this a four-quarter game on Wednesday night. 

Why Ohio State Will Win the Cotton Bowl

With two standout defenses expected to control the game, points are expected to be at a premium on Wednesday night. If that holds up, Ohio State has to like its chances of a victory with the offensive talent on its side. 

Although the Buckeyes scored just 10 points in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, this unit still finished the regular season averaging nearly 35 a contest (34.9) and 6.8 yards a contest. Additionally, Day is set to handle play-calling duties for the rest of the year, as coordinator Brian Hartline is juggling preparing to be the head coach at South Florida and needing this group to get back on track following the loss to the Hoosiers.

Quarterback Julian Sayin emerged as one of the top signal-callers in the nation in his first year as the starter, with a deep set of skill players on the outside, including receivers Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and Brandon Inniss and tight end Max Klare. That collection of weapons is the best Miami’s standout group has faced in ‘25. 

Ohio State’s offensive line is under the spotlight after an uneven performance against the Hoosiers, but the time to regroup before kickoff on Dec. 31 should help this unit get back on track against Miami’s standout front. Running back Bo Jackson (1,035 yards) doesn’t need a huge night on the stat sheet, but the true freshman has to generate enough production to help open up passing lanes for Sayin downfield.

After managing only 10 points and 278 yards against Texas A&M in the first round, Miami’s offense will have its hands full against Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes had arguably the nation’s No. 1 defense in the regular season, holding teams to just 8.2 points a contest. On paper, Miami’s offense is a favorable matchup for Ohio State’s elite defense. If the Buckeyes hold this unit in check, then a tight game decided by a couple of plays or successful drives on offense should easily tilt in favor of Day’s group. 

Cotton Bowl Prediction: Ohio State 24, Miami 17

Don't expect a ton of points in this one. The two defenses are outstanding, leaving points and hards hard to come by on Wednesday night. Ohio State's defense should keep Miami's offense in check, with Day's attack hitting a few big plays in the second half to help the Buckeyes put away the 'Canes and clinch a trip to the playoff semifinals.