Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) records a video to celebrate 63-3 win over Central Michigan as he exits the field at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan makes huge leap on ESPN's FPI, CFP odds skyrocket

Originally posted on Michigan Wolverines on SI
By Luke Hubbard | Last updated Sep 15, 2025 1:00 PM ET

After a disappointing loss to the Oklahoma Sooners on the road, the Michigan Wolverines returned to the Big House and hosted Central Michigan on Saturday. They absolutely dominated the Chippewas, winning by 60 points, and their true freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, looked great.

After their big win, the Wolverines made a huge leap in ESPN's Football Power Index. They jumped 19 spots from No. 29 to No. 10, and now rank higher than schools such as Miami, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and LSU. Their odds to win the Big 10 and make the CFP have skyrocketed since last week. But what is the FPI, and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Michigan's remaining odds

After their win over CMU, ESPN's FPI projects the Wolverines will finish the season with an 8.4-3.8 record, much better than last week when they projected them to finish 6.9-5.1 after their loss to the Sooners. The Wolverines' odds of winning the Big 10 went from 0.6% to 5.9% and their CFP odds jumped from 3.9% to 20.8%. The FPI still doesn't love Michigan's chances to win it all, giving them a 1.5% chance to hoist the trophy at the end of the year, but it's much better than the 0.1% chance they had last week.

Wolverines' odds against Nebraska

The Michigan Wolverines travel to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska to face the Cornhuskers on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Even though they're ranked seven spots ahead of Nebraska in the FPI, ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Wolverines a 49.7% chance to win this game.

The Wolverines have to march into a hostile environment this weekend with a true freshman quarterback under center. That didn't go to well last time, but after a big game against CMU, Underwood should have a lot more confidence this time around. It will take an all-around effort on both sides of the ball to get the job done, and ESPN believes this game is basically a coin flip.

This article first appeared on Michigan Wolverines on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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