The Michigan Wolverines earned a signature win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers this past weekend, which launched them up to No. 19 in the AP Top 25. Both teams got off to a slow start, but the Wolverines' defense made a huge play, picking off Dylan Raiola for the first time this season, which led directly to a big 37-yard touchdown run from Bryce Underwood. From that point on, the Wolverines controlled the game and ended up winning, 30-27.
After the Wolverines' dominant win over Central Michigan last weekend, Michigan jumped 19 spots in ESPN's Football Power Index. They went from No. 29 to No. 10, and their odds to win the Big 10 and make the College Football Playoffs skyrocketed. However, despite getting a huge road win to open conference play, the Wolverines actually fell down to No. 12 in the FPI. But what is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
After their big win over Nebraska, ESPN's FPI projects the Wolverines to finish the season with a 9.0-3.0 record. They have a 2.7% chance to win the rest of their regular season games, an 11.9% chance to win the Big 10 and a 32.1% chance to make the College Football Playoffs. The Wolverines also have a 5.1% chance to make the National Championship and a 2.3% chance to win it all. All of those odds are higher than they were a week ago.
Michigan has a bye week coming up, but after that, the Wolverines will return home to face the Wisconsin Badgers, who are 2-2 and just lost to Maryland by three scores. According to ESPN's matchup predictor, which uses the FPI to help make its predictions, the Wolverines have an 89.0% chance to win this game.
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