Minnesota vs. Oregon Prediction and Game Preview

Minnesota vs. Oregon Keys to Victory

1. Get Dante Moore Going
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate heading into the Indiana game. He lit up Rutgers the following week to the tune of four touchdowns, but he’s yet to throw one in two games since and has less than 200 passing yards during that stretch. This game could be an opportunity for Moore to rebound. Minnesota has a solid pass defense, though not one that should be able to keep him out of the end zone for a third straight game. Moore is hoping to get tight end Kenyon Sadiq back, but he’ll again be without leading receiver Dakorien Moore. The Ducks have spread the wealth for much of this season, as no player has had more than 100 receiving yards in a game. This would be a good time for one of Oregon’s talented pass-catchers to step up with their quarterback struggling.

2. Slow Down the Ducks’ Run Game
Oregon has leaned on its ground game even more than usual over the last few games. The Ducks rank sixth nationally in rushing yards per game (239.7), and Noah Whittington has hit his stride over the last month with a pair of 100-yard outings. Minnesota can counter with the fifth-best run defense in the Big Ten, one that allows just over 100 yards per game. The Golden Gophers hold opponents under 3.5 yards per carry and are tied for ninth nationally with 68 tackles for loss. They can’t stop Oregon on the ground — Whittington is one of three backs on the team with over 400 yards on the year — but Minnesota can potentially hold the Ducks below their average and hope Moore doesn’t revert to his September self.

3. Red Zone Efficiency
The Ducks have the upper hand pretty much across the board in this matchup. But one aspect these teams are relatively evenly matched in is red zone conversions on both sides of the ball. Oregon scores on just over 86% of its trips inside the 20, a hair better than Minnesota. Defensively, the Golden Gophers allow touchdowns at the same clip — roughly 86% — while the Ducks do so over 93% of the time. The difference is Oregon has only allowed 16 red-zone possessions all season, which is tied for the national lead. Minnesota will have a hard time getting that deep into Ducks territory but could have success down there if and when it happens.

Score Prediction: Oregon 38, Minnesota 10

The Ducks have a tricky end to the season between a visit from No. 17 USC and a trip to rival Washington. This is an important opportunity for Oregon to gain some momentum heading into those games rather than continue to eke by against lesser competition. The Golden Gophers’ putrid performances on the road earlier in the year loom large ahead of their first trip to Autzen Stadium. As this hefty spread reflects, the Ducks should roll.

ATS: Oregon -25.5
O/U: Over 48.5