Mississippi State face tough road under Jeff Lebby in pivotal season

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Mississippi State knows what they're upset against and coach Jeff Lebby probably knows what he's got to do to stay here.

The SEC’s new era, with Texas and Oklahoma joining the merry band, offers little margin for error and even less for hope.

For Lebby and a roster in flux, the season represents more than just another uphill battle, it’s a referendum on a program desperate for relevance in college football’s most punishing conference.

The numbers don’t flatter Mississippi State. ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks them at the bottom of the SEC, and Vegas sets their win total at a sobering 3.5 for 2025, tied with Vanderbilt for the league’s lowest expectation.

The Bulldogs haven’t made a bowl appearance since 2022. The mood in Starkville probably can best be described as a wary optimism, driven by newcomers and a coach who understands that patience, in the SEC, is never infinite.

“We’ve gotten better,” Lebby insisted during spring practice, pointing to the development of wide receiver Gracen Harris and running back Seth Davis. “We made some explosive plays offensively. We’ve got to find ways to be better just on first-and-10s and stay ahead. That’ll continue to be a big deal for us.”

After a brutal 2024 campaign in which the Bulldogs finished 2-10, that sort of incremental progress is vital.

The 2025 roster showcases turnover and youth, particularly at quarterback. Eyes are on Kamario Taylor, a top recruit who has flashed promise but remains untested at this level.

Transfer Blake Shapen, who arrives from Baylor with significant experience, could be the steadying force the offense needs if Taylor isn’t ready to seize the job outright.

Potential breakout candidates like Kelley Jones and Anthony Evans add intrigue to a unit that desperately needs playmakers.

But for all the talk of new faces, last season’s problems were old and familiar. Mississippi State’s defense ranked among the worst in the SEC, surrendering nearly 39 points per game and over seven yards per snap in conference play.

“It can only go one way in 2025,” Athlon Sports wrote in its brutally candid preview. Lebby and his staff attacked the transfer portal, bringing in end Red Hibbler from NC State and SEC All-Freshman linebacker Jalen Smith from Tennessee, hoping to ramp up the pressure and tighten the screws on opposing offenses.

Even with reinforcements, they remain a work in progress.

The Bulldogs’ schedule does them no favors. After an early road test at Arizona State, the SEC opener against Florida looms as a potential momentum-changer for the entire season.

Survive those, and there’s little respite: Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss all await. The Egg Bowl, always emotional, may once again mark the difference between a glimmer of success and another lost fall.

For Mississippi State to flirt with bowl eligibility, everything must break right.

The best-case scenario, according to CBS Sports, is a 5-7 finish, a modest improvement, but one that would signal progress in the second year of Lebby’s rebuild. The worst case, a grim 2-10 repeat, would leave the program at a crossroads.

“Another winless season against SEC opponents? That would be a bitter pill to swallow for second-year coach Jeff Lebby,” the analysis notes. “Almost doesn’t count, however. It was ugly and that might not change in 2025.”

Yet there are reasons to believe Mississippi State can exceed these low expectations. The 2025 recruiting class ranks in the national Top 30, highlighted by Taylor and a handful of blue-chip prospects.

The offense, deeper and more dangerous than last year, will benefit from Lebby’s reputation as a quarterback developer.

“Mississippi State will be better. There’s far more depth, Jeff Lebby is in his second year of a rebuild, and there’s more talent to work with,” College Football News said.

For Lebby, the pressure is real and immediate.

“We have the talent to exceed expectations under Coach Lebby, but patience, while admirable, is not infinite,” a columnist said. “There must be progress in 2025.”

It’s a sentiment echoed by fans who have endured too many “almost” seasons and watched rivals surge ahead.

The Bulldogs’ path to relevance requires more than just incremental improvement. They must find a way to compete in close games, protect the football, and force turnovers on defense, none of which came easily a year ago.

A fortunate bounce and a little luck probably would not be declined by State, either. The Dawgs’ margin for error is slim, but the opportunity is real.

If Taylor or Shapen can stabilize the offense and the retooled defense holds its own, Mississippi State could surprise skeptics and claw its way out of the SEC basement.

Ultimately, the 2025 season may not be about wins and losses alone, but about restoring belief in a program that’s lost its way.

Now all that's left may be hope.

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