Mississippi State projections, rankings, Lebby’s vision

STARKVILLE, Miss. — There is a mix of anticipation and apprehension as Mississippi State prepares for the new season.

Get ready because things will start picking up fast. On this July 4 holiday, the Bulldogs finds themselves at a crossroads. Under a second-year coach in Jeff Lebby, State is looking for both redemption and renewal.

They have to confront one of the toughest schedules in college football and the relentless grind of the SEC. The question isn’t where Mississippi State stands today, but how far it can climb as the 2025 campaign unfolds.

After a 2024 season that left fans wanting more, the Bulldogs’ offseason has been quiet but determined with a sense of optimism.

“We know what’s expected in this league. Every week, it’s a fight,” Lebby said during spring practice. “But there’s a different energy in our locker room. We’ve added depth, we’re more experienced, and these guys want to prove something.”

National projections reflect both the promise and the uncertainty swirling around Starkville. ESPN’s 2025-26 Future Power Rankings place Mississippi State at No. 59 nationally.

The Bulldogs have also made a modest climb in the Football Power Index (FPI), thanks in part to a recruiting class ranked as high as 26th by some outlets, a three-spot improvement over the previous cycle.

“The program’s recruiting efforts have yielded promising results,” Lebby said, adding that “talent and competition are the foundation of our rebuild.”

But the SEC is unforgiving, and preseason rankings remind the Bulldogs of the climb ahead.

Phil Steele’s widely respected predictions slot Mississippi State at 16th, dead last, in the expanded 16-team conference (SI.com).

The Clarion Ledger’s SEC coaches poll has the Bulldogs ninth out of sixteen, a slight improvement but still a stark reminder of the league’s depth.

“You don’t get any weeks off in this conference. It’s a dogfight every Saturday,” said defensive lineman Trevion Williams.

Mississippi State’s schedule, widely considered one of the most daunting in the country, only heightens the stakes. The Bulldogs open with Southern Miss, Alcorn State, and Northern Illinois, but things get serious fast.

SEC play brings matchups with Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas, five programs with College Football Playoff aspirations.

“We know we have a mountain to climb, but nobody’s backing down,” said linebacker Stone Blanton. “Coach Lebby keeps saying, ‘control what you can, then go out and surprise people.’ That’s our mindset.”

The team’s 2024 struggles were most pronounced on defense, where the Bulldogs finished near the bottom of the SEC and ranked 125th nationally in total defense.

This offseason, the staff prioritized shoring up the secondary and rebuilding the front seven. Transfers and blue-chip freshmen are expected to compete for starting jobs, with Lebby emphasizing a more aggressive, disruptive scheme.

“We’re going to play fast and physical,” he said. “Mistakes will happen, but we won’t get pushed around.”

On offense, the arrival of transfer quarterback Blake Shapen from Baylor has injected new hope. Shapen, who threw for over 3,000 yards in his final season in Waco, brings experience and poise to a unit that often sputtered in 2024.

“I feel like I’ve got a chip on my shoulder,” Shapen said. “There’s talent here, and Coach Lebby’s offense is about putting playmakers in space. If we execute, we’ll surprise some people.”

Recruiting has been a relative bright spot amid the program’s transition. The Bulldogs’ 2025 class ranked as high as 27th nationally, headlined by several top-150 prospects and a strong contingent of in-state recruits.

“We want to build a team that reflects Mississippi, tough, resilient, and proud,” Lebby said. “It starts with keeping our best players home, and we’re doing that.”

Despite the improvements and optimism, some skepticism remains about how quickly the Bulldogs can close the gap with the SEC’s elite.

“There’s no denying the improvement in depth and recruiting,” said college football analyst Brian Edwards. “But the Bulldogs’ margin for error is slim, and with this schedule, they could play well and still finish with a losing record.”

Lebby, for his part, isn’t running from expectations. He knows exceeding that very low bar will determine how much longer he can stay around.

“We’re not talking about moral victories,” he said. “This program has the resources, the support, and now the talent to turn things around. The guys believe, and that’s the most important thing.”

He’s echoed by senior safety Kelly Akharaiyi.

“We’ve been counted out before,” he said. “That’s nothing new in Starkville. But we’re working to change the story.”

Mississippi State’s fans, famously loyal and long-suffering, sense the possibility of a turning point.

“We want people to remember that this team fought for every inch,” Trevion Williams said. “That’s what Mississippi State football is about.”

All of that sounds good, but the Bulldogs might not want to watch much of Media Days starting July 14 on SEC Network. It won't help you stay positive.

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