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Mississippi State vs. Toledo: Key Factors for Victory in Saturday’s Showdown

Originally posted on Mississippi State Bulldogs on SI
By Taylor Hodges  |  Last updated Sep 12, 2024 5:30 PM ET

STARKVILLE, Miss. – Mississippi State and Toledo’s coaches know there’s always more than one way to win a game.

Sure, both staffs will have their game plans they think will give them the best chance to win. But sometimes those plans don’t work or get thwarted by something crazy or weird.

Despite Toledo being a Conference USA team, the Bulldogs will have to do more than just show up to win. The Rockets have a roster with players who have played with one another for more than two games and they haven’t had a losing season since 2009.

They also have a win against a top 20 SEC team and have won 10 or more games three times since 2015 (Mississippi State has had none).

After watching the Bulldogs against Arizona State, this week’s game against Toledo isn’t as easy of game to predict than it was before the season.

We’ll be posting our official game predictions Saturday morning, but for now, let’s identify what each team will need to do to win.

And to make things interesting for myself, the reason for one team can’t be the opposite of the reason for the other one. For example, if the reason Mississippi State will win is it’s defense stopping the run, the reason for Toledo can’t be running the ball.

So, with that set up, let’s take a look at what it’ll take Toledo and Mississippi State to win Saturday night at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville.

NEXT: The Rockets Will Win If...

The Rockets Will Win If…

Their defense gets three or more sacks.

That’s what Arizona State’s defense did last week to Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen and it worked. The Sun Devils even forced a fumble on one sack that was picked up and returned for a touchdown. Shapen still threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, but a lot of that was in the second half.

The Sun Devils also had two quarterback hits. They didn’t force any interceptions, but sacks are drive killers and a good pass rush can throw a quarterback out of rhythm. So, forcing turnovers isn’t exactly the objective (it certainly wouldn’t hurt, though).

In his time at Baylor and in two games for the Bulldogs, Shapen has shown he can be deadly with a clean pocket

Eastern Kentucky didn’t apply the same type of pressure and ended up losing 56-7. The Colonels had just one sack and two quarterback hits. Of course, there is a large talent gap between Mississippi State and Eastern Kentucky and I’m not sure if five sacks would’ve been enough for the Colonels to win. But the game would’ve been a lot closer than 49 points.

Should Toledo get three sacks, it’s fair to assume there’s defensive pressure on Shapen that doesn’t make it on the stat sheet.

NEXT: The Bulldogs Will Win If...

The Bulldogs Will Win If…

They don’t turn the ball over.

What made Arizona State’s first half against the Bulldogs so dominant was a Shapen fumble near his own goal line that gave the Sun Devils an easy defensive touchdown. Take those seven points away and you’re looking at a tie game.

The Bulldogs are double-digit point favorites, but Toledo is capable of pulling off the upset in Starkville. One of the key ingredients in the recipe for an upset win is to force turnovers. Even if the turnover doesn’t result in any points, it still steals a possession away giving the bigger school fewer chances to score points.

Shapen hasn’t thrown an interception in two games (hopefully that’s not a jinx), but the Bulldogs have committed five fumbles. That’s about five more than coach Jeff Lebby would like to see on the stat sheet, even in rainy weather.

The Bulldogs have also gotten lucky with only one of those five fumbles recovered by the defense. Anyone who has played with a football knows that ball is capable of taking crazy bounces and the Bulldogs’ two fumbles against EKU took a lucky bounce straight toward another Bulldog.

That kind of luck doesn’t last long and Mississippi State probably shouldn’t tempt fate much more.

Read More:

Mississippi State Football Leads SEC in Unique Category

UPDATED: Mississippi State vs. Toledo Weather Forecast Post-Hurricane Francine

Mississippi State Faces Toledo: Remember the Rockets’ 2015 Upset of Arkansas?

Mississippi State vs. Toledo: Can the Rockets’ Experience Lead to an Upset?


This article first appeared on Mississippi State Bulldogs on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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