Most Likely FCS Over FBS Upsets In 2025 (Week 1)

There will be several FCS vs FBS matchups in Week 1 as FCS programs search for that elusive FBS upset.

Last season, we saw six FCS over FBS upsets last season, a slight increase from four in 2023. None of the six wins came against a Power Four opponent; the last P4 upset occurred in 2023, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford.

The following games are the most likely FCS over FBS upsets in Week 1, according to point spreads provided by Action Network. The point spreads listed below are the lowest currently available and were collected on Tuesday evening.

15. St. Francis (+23.5) vs Louisiana-Monroe

14. Stephen F. Austin (+22.5) vs Houston

13. Nicholls (+20.5) vs Troy

12. Bryant (+19.5) vs New Mexico State

11. UT Martin (+19.5) vs Oklahoma State

10. Stony Brook (+18.5) vs San Diego State

9. Tarleton State (+14.5) vs Army

8. South Dakota (+14.5) vs Iowa State

7. Lafayette (+14.5) vs Bowling Green

6. Idaho (+13.5) vs Washington State

5. Southeastern Louisiana (+12.5) vs Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech struggled against Nicholls last season, limping to a 5-8 overall record. The Bulldogs rank as the No. 123 FBS team in ESPN's FPI rankings. Southeastern Louisiana is always a dangerous team under head coach Frank Scelfo, but this year's team will be led by an extremely experienced defense. 10 significant contributors return, led by All-SLC selection Kaleb Proctor and Preseason All-American safety Ian Conerly-Goodly.

4. Holy Cross (+10.5) vs Northern Illinois

Holy Cross lost three of their first four games by seven points or less, but got hot late in the season and finished 5-1 in conference play under new head coach Dan Curran. The Crusaders defeated FBS teams in back-to-back seasons from 2021-22 and nearly knocked off Boston College in 2023. Defensively, Holy Cross returns 13 significant contributors, while running back Jayden Clerveaux will lead the offense once again.

3. SEMO (+10.5) vs Arkansas State

Arkansas State needed a blown call from the referees to escape Central Arkansas last season. The Red Wolves rank No. 94 in ESPN's FPI after finishing 8-5 in 2024. SEMO has plenty of returning talent at multiple key positions, including EDGE where All-American Casey McCoy will anchor the defensive front. Wide receiver Cam Pedro and running back Payton Brown are key weapons for new starting quarterback Jax Leatherwood. The Redhawks lost to New Mexico State 23-16 last year, falling just short of an FBS upset.

2. Merrimack (+6.5) vs Kent State

Kent State ranks dead last in the ESPN FPI after going 1-23 over the past two seasons. Last season, the program finished 0-12, including a loss to Saint Francis, who was an FCS program that only won four games. Merrimack finished 5-6 in the first season under head coach Mike Gennetti, including a competitive showing against Air Force (21-6) in Week 1. The Warriors usually have great individual talent, making this an intriguing FCS vs FBS matchup this weekend.

1. Abilene Christian (+5.5) vs Tulsa

Quarterback Stone Earle returns to Abilene Christian, where he had success as a freshman before taking his talents to the FBS level. New Tulsa head coach Tre Lamb has a lot of work of to do getting this program off the mat. If the Wildcats successfully reloaded along the offensive line and at wide receiver, Abilene Christian could be in a great position for an upset.