Mountain West Football 2025 Predictions

Mountain West Championship Game: Boise State over UNLV

1. Boise State

Even though running back Ashton Jeanty will be missed, Boise State is still the team to beat in the Mountain West and among programs in the Group of 5 conferences for a spot in the playoff this year.

Jeanty leaves big shoes to fill in the backfield, but coach Spencer Danielson can lean a little more on quarterback Maddux Madsen. Also, the Broncos aren’t exactly hurting for promising options at running back with Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod (Fresno State transfer) competing for the No. 1 job. Left tackle Kage Casey leads an offensive line that should be the best in the Mountain West in ‘25.

With six starters returning, optimism is high for the defense to take another step forward after holding teams to 5.7 yards a play in Mountain West games last season. End Jayden Virgin-Morgan (14.5 TFL in ‘24) and tackle Braxton Fely are back to anchor the front, with safety Ty Benefield and cornerback A’Marion McCoy leading the way on the back end. 

2. UNLV

Barry Odom guided UNLV to new heights with back-to-back appearances in the Mountain West title game. Now it’s up to former Florida head coach Dan Mullen to build on that success and elevate this team even higher in ‘25 and beyond. With just two starters returning, Mullen is breaking in a ton of new faces this fall. However, a standout transfer class will ease the overall transition.

Mullen’s ability to build productive offenses should shine right away in Las Vegas. Running back Jai’Den Thomas (918 yards in ‘24) will be the focal point of this attack, with a pair of power conference transfers - Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan) - vying for the quarterback job. Mullen also hit the portal hard for reinforcements at receiver and along an offensive line looking to replace all five starters from last season.

Linebacker Marsel McDuffie is the lone returning starter on a defense that led the Mountain West in fewest points allowed (21.3) a game last year. Expect transfers at all three levels to make an immediate impact, including cornerback Denver Harris (UTSA), safety Jake Pope (Georgia), and lineman Jalen Lee (LSU).

3. San Jose State

After a successful debut in 2024, coach Ken Niumatalolo has his sights set on guiding San Jose State to the Mountain West title game in ‘25. The Spartans return nine starters from last year’s seven-win team, and the schedule breaks in favor of SJSU. Niumatalolo’s squad won’t play Boise State or UNLV and hosts Air Force, Hawaii, and Fresno State.

An offense that averaged just over six yards a play (6.1) returns quarterback Walker Eget, three starters along the line, and a solid tandem of Jabari Bates and Floyd Chalk IV in the backfield. Replacing receiver Nick Nash is the team’s top priority, with rising star Matthew Coleman likely to fill the void as the No. 1 target.

With Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu returning, the linebacker unit ranks as the biggest strength for San Jose State’s defense. But coordinator Derrick Odum must replace standout lineman Soane Toia and restock a secondary losing four key contributors from the ‘24 group.

4. Fresno State

Fresno State’s Mountain West title hopes suffered an early setback last fall when coach Jeff Tedford retired prior to the opener. The Bulldogs still managed to finish with six victories and a bowl appearance but lost five games by one score in a missed opportunity with a roster capable of contending for a spot in the conference title game. New coach Matt Entz arrives after working the 2024 campaign as a defensive assistant at USC and previously went 60-11 at North Dakota State from 2019-23.

Both sides of the ball will require some retooling by Entz, but the cupboard isn’t bare on offense. Former Rice and Temple transfer EJ Warner should be a solid pickup from the portal at quarterback, with Bryson Donelson and Elijah Gilliam forming a potent combo in the backfield. How well a line jells with just two returning starters (and tackle Jacob Spomer kicking inside to center) is the biggest question mark.

The Bulldogs led the Mountain West in fewest yards per play allowed (4.9) and finished No. 44 nationally in defensive success rate. Entz inherits only three starters, but similar to the offense, there is talent waiting to emerge. Former top recruit Korey Foreman is poised for a breakout year off the edge, while cornerback Al’zillion Hamilton is among the Mountain West’s top returning defensive backs.

5. Colorado State

Colorado State is coming off its best finish (8-5) in coach Jay Norvell’s three-year run atop the program. And if not for a late-season loss to Fresno State, the Rams would’ve played Boise State for the Mountain West title. Building on last year’s eight wins won’t be easy. Colorado State’s schedule is tougher than it was in ‘24 and only five starters return.

Having an experienced quarterback like Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi alleviates some of the personnel concerns on offense, especially as Norvell shifts the attack to put more of the focus on his right arm in ‘25. Fowler-Nicolosi’s receiving corps is in transition with four of the top five statistical options departing. The Rams are deep at running back with Tulsa transfer Lloyd Avant and Justin Marshall leading the way.

After giving up 5.7 yards a play to Mountain West teams and finishing No. 88 in defensive success rate, Norvell dismissed coordinator Freddie Banks and brought Tyson Summers (previously the Colorado State defensive coordinator in 2015) back to Fort Collins. Expect a couple of power conference transfers - linebacker Jacob Ellis (Iowa State) and JaQues Evans (Baylor), and cornerback Jahari Rogers (SMU) - to help right away on a unit that returns only one starter.

6. Air Force

Last year’s 5-7 record was a disappointment, but don’t expect Air Force to stay grounded for too long. Under coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons have just five losing seasons since 2007. After navigating significant roster turnover from ‘23 and a younger team last year, expect a return to the postseason in ‘25.

Air Force ranked last in the Mountain West in scoring (18.9 points a game last year), but the foundation for this group is solid. Four players that rushed for 260 or more yards are back, including fullback Dylan Carson (600 yards). Also, three starters are back in the trenches to form potentially one of the Mountain West’s top offensive lines. Quarterback play is the biggest concern for Calhoun. Junior Josh Johnson and sophomore Liam Szarka are set to battle to replace Quentin Hayes under center.

The Falcons have work to do in order to extend their streak of finishing in the top three of the Mountain West in scoring defense to seven years in a row. Just three starters are back, with Calhoun and coordinator Brian Knorr navigating significant turnover at linebacker and in the secondary. 

7. Hawaii

Hawaii has made some progress under coach Timmy Chang and just missed a bowl with a 5-7 mark last year. At 13-25 overall and no postseason appearances through his first three seasons in charge, the ‘25 campaign is a crucial one for Chang’s long-term outlook at his alma mater.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Alejado threw for 469 yards and five touchdowns in his first career start and a 38-30 win over New Mexico in last year’s season finale. The Las Vegas native is primed for a breakout season at the controls of Chang’s high-powered passing game, with standouts Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock back at receiver. Improving an offensive line that allowed 43 sacks last season is a must if Hawaii wants to reach the postseason.

In coordinator Dennis Thurman’s first year, the Rainbow Warriors showed slight improvement on defense by holding conference opponents to 5.9 yards a snap. Seven starters are back, providing Thurman with a solid foundation to build around in ‘25. The secondary welcomes cornerback Virdel Edwards II back to the lineup after missing ‘24, while safety Peter Manuma is among the Mountain West’s best at his position. Jamih Otis and Logan Taylor form a solid pairing at the second level, while the line needs to tighten up against the run after allowing 194.4 rushing yards a game to Mountain West opponents last year.

8. San Diego State

Sean Lewis was one of the top coaching hires in last year’s carousel, but it’s clear patience is needed in San Diego after a 3-9 debut. The Aztecs made a significant shift in offensive philosophy to more of a wide-open attack, while the defense shifted to a four-man front after deploying a 3-3-5 attack in previous seasons.

For San Diego State to make a bowl in Lewis’ second year, finding a capable quarterback from a battle featuring a pair of transfers (Michigan’s Jayden Denegal or Central Michigan’s Bert Emanuel Jr.) tops the list of offseason priorities. Expect the backfield to be a strength with Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington leading the way, while receiver Jordan Napier is an All-Mountain West candidate. Improvement up front (31 sacks allowed) is a must.

On the other side of the ball, it’s a good news and bad situation for Lewis. The good: San Diego State returns 10 starters, including All-America candidate in edge rusher Trey White. The bad: This unit allowed 34 points per game and 6.5 yards a play in Mountain West action last year. Will experience and another year of development in Lewis’ program translate into improvement?

9. Utah State

New coach Bronco Mendenhall knows how to get the most out of a roster, but his debut in Logan features a steep climb to bowl eligibility.

The Aggies return only one starter on offense, but Mendenhall brought in a handful of reinforcements through the portal. Former BYU running back Miles Davis should help in the backfield right away, with a couple of transfers - Demick Starling (Western Kentucky), Corey Thompson (UNLV), and Brady Boyd (Texas Tech) - expected to factor into the receiving rotation. Bryson Barnes threw for 856 yards and 12 touchdowns and added 530 yards and five scores on the ground in his first year with the Aggies in ‘24. He’s expected to start once again, with former Arizona State and BYU quarterback Jacob Conover providing depth.

Similar to the offense, Utah State is counting on transfers to impact this unit right away at all three levels in ‘25. The Aggies allowed 37.8 points a game and finished No. 119 nationally in defensive success rate in ‘24, but Mendenhall’s arrival and the portal help should get this unit back on track. Gabriel Iniguez Jr. is a stalwart in the trenches, with Ike Larsen back to anchor the back end at safety.

10. Wyoming

The Cowboys’ 3-9 record in 2024 was the program’s first losing mark (in a full season of games) since 2015. However, the month of November provided optimism in coach Jay Sawvel’s first year in charge. Wyoming showed progress in that stretch with two victories over its last four games and a four-point defeat to Mountain West champion Boise State.

Quarterback Kaden Anderson gave the offense a spark late last season and will get a chance to pilot the attack for the full year in ‘25. He’s joined by a solid stable of running backs that includes Sam Scott (435 yards) and four returning starters along the offensive line. Tight end John Michael Gyllenborg (30 catches for 425 yards) headlines the targets for Anderson on the outside.

Wyoming’s defense is usually one of the tougher (and better) groups in the Mountain West. However, this unit slipped last season, finishing No. 96 in defensive success rate and allowing over 200 rushing yards in conference play. This unit suffered some attrition to the portal in the spring and returns only one starter. However, Sawvel still has a solid foundation to lean on up front, including end Tyce Westland and tackle Ben Florentine. 

11. Nevada

The Wolf Pack’s final record was only 3-10 last year, but coach Jeff Choate brought immediate improvement to Reno with a much more competitive team in his debut. However, building on last year’s step forward isn’t going to be easy with major turnover on both sides of the ball.

With quarterback Brendon Lewis transferring to Memphis, former Florida State and Nebraska signal-caller Chubba Purdy is expected to step into the starting quarterback job. The Wolf Pack rank No. 119 in ESPN’s returning production metric for offenses in ‘25 with holes to fill at running back, receiver, and along the offensive line. Receiver Marcus Bellon (39 catches for 522 yards in ‘24) should be Purdy’s go-to target.

The theme of turnover continues on defense. Choate brings back only one starter (defensive lineman Thomas Witte), and the secondary lost every major contributor from ‘24. A handful of transfers are expected to provide instant help for this unit.

12. New Mexico

New Mexico is on its third head coach in three years with Jason Eck arriving from Idaho to replace Bronco Mendenhall after he departed after just one season to Utah State. Considering how challenging of a job this is, Eck’s 26-13 record at the FCS level should give the Lobos optimism that he can get the most out of the roster.

Change is everywhere for New Mexico in ‘25. Just one starter on offense is back, but Eck dipped into the portal for help. Quarterback Jack Layne (Idaho) and running back Scottre Humphrey (Montana State), and receiver Keagan Johnson (Kansas State) are expected to make an instant impact. An overhauled offensive line is Eck’s biggest concern.

New Mexico surrendered 38 points a game last year and just three starters are back on defense. The linebacker unit should be solid with Randolph Kpai, Dimitri Johnson, and Idaho transfer Jaxton Eck in the mix. How the defensive line and secondary develops will determine just how much improvement the Lobos can make in ‘25.