NCAAF futures, BYU win totals: Can Cougars keep the wins coming?

BYU is back in a conference for the first time since 2010. The program is joining the Big 12 in pretty good shape, though they have been declining in wins for the last two seasons. They have continuity on the sidelines where head coach Kalani Sitake has had just one losing season in seven. BYU builds its rosters a little differently than other teams and will be relying on transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis at QB. He definitely has a lot of experience. 

The Cougars have always leaned more into offense and they are going to have to keep doing so as they enter their new league. There is going to be a lot of learning, but it would be surprising if the Cougars all of a sudden become very good on the defensive side of the ball. When you are facing unfamiliar opponents it is always tough to read who has the edge until you see them on the field. 

2023 BYU Cougars Win Total

Over 5.5 -125 / Under 5.5 +100

It is one thing to move from one conference to another, and another thing to do so after being an independent. BYU never struggled to schedule because they have a good following, but the markets are saying they might struggle as they make this transition. That is a pretty low total for a program that has not won less than seven games over the last five seasons. BYU has just one season with less than seven wins since 2004. The Cougars may not be threatening for national championships, but BYU has been a consistently winning program. It is hard to see that changing so quickly.

If it did it will be because the Big 12 has done them no favors in terms of scheduling. This is the last season for Texas and Oklahoma in the league and they play them both, in Austin and at home (against the Sooners). Those are likely losses. The Cougars also have to go to Arkansas in the nonconference and to their old Mountain West foe TCU. Those look like a couple of losses as well and a trip to Kansas is not the gimme it used to be. BYU played just one lower-division team this season but it is hard to blame them for starting the season with a couple this year. 

BYU has a great tradition at quarterback (there is usually an NFL-bound player at starter). Slovis is not going to be in Provo long, but I do not expect the offense to suffer much with him at the controls. He has some experienced pass catchers too. I am confident that the offense should be able to have success with the transition to the new league. Defensively, I am not sure there is much reason to expect things to improve a ton this season. I think the Cougars are going to compete hard and find themselves in a lot of games that could go either way. I only get to 5 wins when I look at this program and that schedule. Given you can get a better payoff on that under it is worth playing.