NCAAF betting: Finding value in Saturday's late game

We are getting deeper and deeper into bowl season but it is fair to still keep the excitement factor at a dull roar. At least the teams are getting more recognizable as we creep toward the end of the year.

In this look at games on Saturday there are some good values, especially in that classic Big Ten vs. Pac-12 game featuring ... Northwestern and Utah.

Here's a quick look to get you ready for Saturday.

Saturday, Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl

Duke Blue Devils vs. Troy Trojans
Noon ET
Best Bet: Duke +7.5

Both of these teams have lost their head coaches and in the case of Duke their starting quarterback as well. I know that makes them an odd choice to back here but I still think their talent base is better than Troy’s and their reserve pivots got some playing time with Riley Leonard having an injury-plagued season. The new head coach for Duke, Manny Diaz, is another defensive-minded coach and I think it is easier for a coach on that side of the ball to have some impact immediately. Troy has less certainty with an interim in place (they just hired the Notre Dame OC this week) and even though I am sure they would like an ACC pelt to cap a strong season I am not fond of leaning in. The Trojans have 11 wins but the one time they played “power” competition they lost by almost 30. Duke still qualifies as that, sort of.

More: Enter the interim — Duke, Troy seek bowl win for coaching fill-ins

Camellia Bowl

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Noon ET
Best Bet: Huskies +1.5

So far the MAC is 1-1 SU in bowl games, but 2-0 ATS, including an upset by Ohio. When they are in the right kind of matchup I tend to like the MAC teams this time of year (they tend to have less turmoil) and this is a spot where Northern Illinois can thrive. They want to play a physical brand of football and they have managed to retain the services of their top running back Antario Brown. That style of play can really work this time of year and with that to lean on, they can give the Red Wolves, led by former SEC coach Butch Jones, all they can handle. With the number at the current level, you can definitely just take the moneyline too for a little extra bang for your buck with Northern Illinois.

More: N. Illinois aims to end run of bowl losses in clash vs. Arkansas St.

Armed Forces Bowl

James Madison Dukes vs. Air Force Falcons
3:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Falcons +2.5

You gotta love the NCAA. James Madison wasn't allowed to play in the Sun Belt title game, but when they “needed” them to fill a bowl slot they changed their tune. Their opponent is Air Force, a team that really struggled down the stretch (and ate some bankroll in the process). I still think they are not a team you want to face right now though because this is just another work week for the service academies, and that is a good thing. The last four times a service academy has been in this bowl they have won and three of those four have been by a TD or more. James Madison may have 11 wins on the season but a lot of those have been close games that could have gone either way. I am looking for the Falcons to turn this game into a fight and win it outright. We are buying low with thanks to their four-game losing streak to close the season.

More: New-look James Madison aims to jolt Air Force in Armed Forces Bowl

Potato Bowl

Utah State Aggies vs. Georgia State Panthers
3:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Aggies -1.5

Admittedly this is another spot where I do not know a ton about the two programs, both of which finished 6-6 in the Mountain West and Sun Belt respectively. It is hard to get excited about a Panthers team that has lost their last five games, especially against a Utah State that has won three of four. I also like the fact that the trip up to Boise State is a very familiar one for the Aggies, who are in the same conference as the Broncos. The line is saying the margins in this game are pretty thin and I agree. Georgia State has lost its top running back to the transfer portal too. That might be an easy position to plug and play but we are talking about Georgia Southern, not Georgia here. Utah State should win and cover in the process.

More: Levi Williams, Utah State back to Boise, geared up for Georgia State

68 Ventures Bowl

South Alabama Jaguars vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles
7 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Over 46.5

This is essentially a home game for the Jaguars, which has to be one of the reasons this game has a monster spread — Southern Alabama -15.5. That is way too much chalk for me, but I wasn’t quite feeling the Eagles either, even though they are very well-coached by Chris Creighton. The Jags average more than 30 ppg and they should be able to move the ball against EMU. USA has a 1000+ yard rusher and receiver, something that not many teams can boast. The ability to keep the Eagles guessing on defense should enable them to reach their average point total with ease, but I am not anticipating them playing stifling defense though. I like something in the neighborhood of a 38-20 final that goes over with ease. That's a cover too but I am more comfortable with the total here.

More: South Alabama at home for 68 Ventures Bowl vs. Eastern Michigan

Las Vegas Bowl

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Utah Utes
7:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Utes -6.5

The Utes are one of the best culture teams in the country. The season did not quite work out the way I thought it would for them but they definitely have a more talented roster than Northwestern, who should be applauded for not mailing in the season. Just qualifying for a bowl after firing their coach when they did makes this season a great success, but Utah is one of those teams you do not want to play unless you are fully committed and that is tough to ask for at this point of a very long season. The Utes are one of the most physical teams in the country, year in and year and when they are favored they generally throw their weight around. They have not lost a game as a favorite this year and getting them at under a TD feels like a pretty cheap price. This is one of my favorite bets of the early bowl slate.

More: Utah meets resilient Northwestern in Las Vegas Bowl

Hawaii Bowl

San Jose State Spartans vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
10:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Coastal Carolina +10.5

The Spartans were not even on the bowl projections at the midway point of the season. Since then, they have won six games in a row and thanks to more continuity they are more than a double-digit favorite in the bowl game. That is a pretty big turn. The big negative for the Chanticleers is that they have lost their starting quarterback to the transfer portal but throughout the season Coastal Carolina has been able to give some other players a chance to get their feet wet at the position. San Jose State is not an elite defensive team, giving up 25 ppg. If they give up close to that to CCU I do not see how they win with that kind of margin.

More: San Jose State cruising, Coastal Carolina losing in build-up to Hawaii Bowl