NCAAF betting: Use Week 1 lessons to win big in Week 2 and beyond

This week we had to wait until the end of Monday to close off the college football week. It was definitely worth the wait though as we got a massive upset courtesy of Duke Monday night. Good for them. It was far from the only one that's for sure. Perhaps amid the chaos of conference realignment we get a great season. 

Below I am going to share a few things that I noticed that could be of value over the season to come. This is not just a breakdown of spread busters and closing line value figures though. I am sure you can find those somewhere if you are looking for them.

Here are some things that caught my eye ...

The Big 12 is Going to Be Wild

Texas and Oklahoma are on the way out ... UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are in ... and Colorado, Utah. Arizona and Arizona State are coming. Keeping that all clear is going to be a challenge so is going to be figuring out who is really good or really bad in this conference. Newcomer UCF looked pretty good but fellow newcomer BYU was less than impressive. National runner-up TCU got rocked by Colorado and Texas Tech lost at Wyoming. The Horned Frogs made it all the way to the title game last year and now have a two-game losing streak and that wasn't even the worst loss for the league ... sorry, Baylor fans. It does not feel like there is anything close to a reliable team in the league this season which probably means backing Kansas State is the way to go. 

The betting takeaway - Underdogs!!

QB Experience Matters

If you are not experienced at the quarterback position, then good luck. Sophomore Cade Klubnik made his first regular-season start last night and Clemson scored seven points against Duke. Seven. Now there are many reasons why (including terrible fumbles in the Red Zone that were not his fault), but playing QB effectively is about taking advantage of opportunities and Klubnik would not push the ball down the field. Maybe it is not a fair comparison but the lower-rated prospect Shedeur Sanders, who was playing FCS ball the last two seasons, and getting tons of reps, looked brilliant in the Colorado upset of TCU. There is no substitute for experience at the most important position which might mean reckonings at some point for the likes of Alabama, Ohio State, and even Georgia. (Maybe). You have to be really strong elsewhere to overcome bad QB play. 

BTW: All those amazing QBs out West. They have put in the time. 

The betting takeaway — Look for situations where there is a big gap in quarterback play to find teams to back.  (Duke's Riley Leonard is going to the NFL.)

Uh-Oh, ACC

Yes, Florida State was impressive in its win over LSU, but after last night, who is the second-best team in the ACC?  Clemson (still)? Duke? North Carolina? It looks like there is even more parity than ever to me and that can be a bettor's best friend. Even though the league pales in comparison to the SEC and Big Ten in terms of revenue, the Pac-12 is going out on a high note (and the Big 12 is nuts — see above). The ACC might be where the best values really lie. A deep middle is a place where advantages can really be taken advantage of (if you can find them). Those games where there are no teams with numbers next to their names can be the ones to focus in on. 

The betting takeaway — If a team is favored by more than 10 points and that team is not FSU ... question it!

Michigan used Week 1 perfectly (They just didn't cover)

If you were following in the offseason you know I was high on Big Blue to have a great season. Their schedule sets up really well for them, and I even liked QB J.J. McCarthy as a Heisman Trophy winner. Then they went out and failed to cover in the opener against East Carolina. They did not even score 35 points let alone win by that amount, 30-3 final. They were in a word ... meh and this sets them up for success down the road because they got McCarthy off to a strong start and showed they are willing to take the training wheels off. Last year he had 30 or more pass attempts just twice during the regular season and just 34 combined over their first three games, which they dominated. He had 30 attempts against the Pirates (completing 26). Now, I know ECU is not OSU, but they have clearly gotten comfortable with him and that is going to mean big things for the offense overall this season. 

The betting takeaway — Look for some team total overs (once the competition stiffens against the B10)