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NCAAF betting: What we learned this weekend
I watched a lot of the Penn State vs. Ohio State game on Saturday. Rooting for the visiting Nittany Lions it was a terrible disappointment for sure, it was also not a very good watch. I know a slew of those players on the field are going to be in the NFL, but I was still left with the thought of whether either of these teams is really any good? Or are the coaches? There were so many moments where it seemed like both teams were trying to outsmart their opposition, instead of out scheming them. These coaches are making $10 million a year and then they allow the QBs to make calls at the line. That sounds like diminishing returns to me. Anyway ... here are some things I think I think.
NCAAF Week 8 Observations
New Guys Not Looking So Good
UCF and Houston might have put a scare in Oklahoma and Texas respectively but overall the new members of the Big 12 have struggled in their first season. BYU is 2-2 and those two wins are one more than UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston combined so far. I thought it would go a lot better than it has and it is starting to make me wonder about the long-term health of the football programs in the new league.
Betting takeaway ... none of these teams have much to play for at this point. BYU might be the only one that gets to being bowl-eligible. I am moving off them for the time being.
More Low Scoring
The NFL is going through a scoring drought this season and it looks like college is too. Iowa just lost a game 12-10 and that was just one of many games which saw final scores remind us of the 1950s. Per the above, that PSU/OSU game was brutal if you like offense and 14 teams won games this weekend while scoring 21 points or less. Some teams won without even getting to half of that (Nevada 6, SDSU 0; Mississippi State 7, Arkansas 3).
Betting takeaway ... As bettors we do not want extremes, we want predictability. Assuming a team can score is part of that. Winning on some unders is nice, but it does not make up for watching terrible football.
Next Coach Fired — Neal Brown?
Brown came into the season on the hot seat. It might have cooled for a little, but their last game, a home loss as a favorite to Oklahoma State might be the last straw. That is now back-to-back losses, as a favorite for a coach who can't afford to lose games he is supposed to win. I am still surprised he couldn't get the program going after his time at Troy was so successful. It might just be that WVU is ill-suited for success in the Big 12.
Betting takeaway ...t hings either get a lot better or a lot worse for a program in this state. My guess is the latter.
What to Make of Pac-12 Now
Early on it looked like the Pac-12 was the best conference in the history of conferences. USC, Oregon, and Washington were Top Ten teams and the likes of Utah, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado were not far behind. Of course, they were going to cannibalize each other at some point, but I don't think we could have imagined what we have seen. USC is out of the running for everything, Oregon took the loss to UW (and has looked meek since) and now the Huskies look like they might not make it through the month undefeated, let alone the season. There are five teams in the league with one or no losses and it is impossible to tell which is the best.
Betting takeaway ... Chaos is never a great thing unless you know how to profit from it. Underdogs are going to be the plays here. They were 3-1 ATS last week.
FSU Futures
With North Carolina losing at home as a favorite to Virginia (ughh), the ACC now looks like a free pass for Florida State to make it to the College Football Playoffs. Yes, there are more games to play but the more that ticket looks automatic the more it might be worth making a play on them right now. They are +700 to win it all currently and -240 to win the ACC.
Betting takeaway ... You can take that +700 and put a little on whoever they play in the ACC Championship Game as a hedge. If they somehow lose you are probably profitable right away and if they win you have a ticket into the playoffs.
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