NCAAF Futures: Kentucky fighting for relevance in the SEC

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That is because of the physical style of play they bring to every game. Stoops has also upped the talent base and if you are not on your game they will beat you (and beat you up). Just ask the likes of Florida, who used to whip on them for years. It is never a bad idea to lean on Kentucky overperforming but let's take a look at their 2023 season win total. 

Kentucky Wildcats 2023 Win Total

Over 7 -120 / Under 7 +100

The markets seem to be predicting some improvement upon last season. There is good energy around the team with a "new" offensive coordinator and transfer quarterback in the mix. It is now firmly established that Kentucky has the horses to compete in the SEC and in six of the last seven seasons they have reached at least seven victories with the lone outlier being the COVID year. There are a couple of 10-win seasons mixed in there too so I think there is pretty good proof of concept in Lexington.

In this last season of divisions, the SEC East is still the lighter of the two. Kentucky has to play top-ranked Georgia and Tennessee, but after that, the division presents winnable games. This year's crossovers are tough though. They have to go to Mississippi State and host Alabama in back-to-back weeks. The annual rivalry game against Louisville to close the season is no gimme either, but at least the tour of the MAC to start the year (Ball State and Akron) enables them to get ready for the rest of the schedule. This line looks pretty tight.

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Kentucky struggled offensively last season, even though there was a time when quarterback Will Levis was considered a legitimate candidate for the top pick in the NFL Draft. Back in the fold is Liam Coen as offensive coordinator, a role he held when the Wildcats won 10 games a couple of seasons ago. His presence surely helped the Wildcats bring in sought-after transfer QB Devin Leary (from NC State). He is less physically gifted than Levis, but can efficiently run an offense. With strength in the trenches on both sides of the ball, Kentucky should be able to play the kind of complimentary football that Stoops wants to.

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Per the scheduling note, this line does look pretty tight. Kentucky keeps themselves in a lot of games, but I see at least four losses on the schedule which does not leave much room for error on that over. Given the under has the better payoff that is the way I am leaning right now. They should get off to a very strong start but don't let that fool you too much.