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NCAAF Top 25 futures: Oregon Ducks are making the Pac-12 heavy at the top

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 7/12/23

Oregon is in an interesting place in the Pac-12. The program is well established, but with UCLA and USC leaving for the Big Ten there is a true opportunity to be the lead dog in the conference on the gridiron. To be more than the flashy, fun uniforms and the swoosh. That is what head coach Dan Lanning left Georgia for and the early returns were pretty good last season.

There is no reason to think the good times will not continue this season, even though their creative offensive coordinator is now the head coach at rival Arizona State. Quarterback Bo Nix proved last season that you can use his name in a sentence without having to include the words inconsistent and his return puts the Ducks in the mix in what should be a great season in this league in transition.

No. 18 Oregon Ducks 2023 Win Total

Over 9.5 +100 / Under 9.5 -120

The Ducks won 10 games in Lanning's debut season and the numbers are saying we should not expect a repeat. This is a good team but they have room for improvement, especially on the defensive side, which I suppose is good because that is the head coach's area of expertise. The Ducks were trounced by Georgia in the season opener last season but quickly shook it off and then was a touchdown away from a near-perfect season. The prices are pretty even so it looks like this season could go either way.

The Oregon schedule is not as heavy as it was last year. How could it be, when the Dawgs are not on it. The Ducks schedule well, but going to Texas Tech is not nearly as difficult a task, and that is not in Week 1 (they play Portland State to ease into the schedule). However, within the Pac-12, they play all three of the other league heavyweights with trips to Washington and Utah, plus a visit from USC (all teams ranked higher). I see just a couple of gimmes on the schedule (sorry, Stanford) and even the final date of the season, the annual Civil War has some heat as the Ducks are the ones looking for revenge this season for the first time in a while. This is a schedule that is going to test the Ducks.

For the Ducks to have a strong season they need Nix to maintain the level of performance he had under departed OC Kenny Dillingham. His top weapons return, but the offensive line needs to be retooled. How fast that group comes together probably determines how successful their season is. The defense is an experienced group, but they are breaking in new starters at every level. They could not stop the pass last season and that was with CB Christian Gonzalez, who was drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. That needs to improve and Lanning needs to add some shine to this group because the Pac-12 is loaded with good offenses.

Sorry, Ducks fans but I am with the market here. If the Ducks win all the games they are supposed to that only gets to 9 for me and games against the likes of Colorado and Arizona State look tougher than expected (and have been in the past). Not a great payoff, but the under is the pick.

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