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TCU Coach Sonny Dykes. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

NCAAF Top 25 futures: TCU looks for consistency after title game embarrassment

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 7/31/23

TCU had a great season last year. Head coach Sonny Dykes came in and injected the team with a shot of energy that they rode all the way to the National Championship game. Sure they got thumped there by Georgia but better to have "loved and lost" right? Now they have to prove it wasn't a fluke.

The Horned Frogs could be in a great spot to be a bit of a bully in the changing Big 12 if they can fully capitalize on last year's success. For starters, they cannot fall too far this season, which will be one with a new quarterback leading the way for an offense that will be seeking to be as explosive as it was a year ago.

No. 16 TCU Horned Frogs 2023 Win Total

Over 7.5 -130 / Under 7.5 +110

Nobody is expecting the Horned Frogs to repeat the success of last season (I mean nobody). That is made clear by the win total being set so modestly, and the pricing is such that a complete collapse look after last season is not very likely. TCU should be in the mix in the expanded Big 12 this season and you can bet that after last they have the whole league's attention. Plus Oklahoma and Texas are still around this year so the Big 12 is better than people might be giving it credit for right now. Why else would Colorado jump in? There is not a lot of payoff on either side right now, you might want to wait to see if this number moves.

TCU begins the season with a big game, but that is mostly because of the buzz that Deion Sanders is building in Colorado. The Buffs are definitely improved but there is a ton of transition there and I think the Horned Frogs, who are further along in their development can get them. The opener is at home, as is the entire non-conference schedule, which is not too taxing. SMU should be a win too. Then, within the Big 12, the Horned Frogs have a pretty tough slate to navigate. They have to take on both the Sooners and the Longhorns and road trips to Iowa State and Kansas State are never picnics. If this team was more lucky than good last season the results might be very bad in Fort Worth this year.

It was written a lot last year about how now departed QB Max Duggan did not win the starting job last year, but was elevated after an injury to Chandler Morris. True as that may be that is no guarantee the Horned Frogs will have a strong offense this season, especially with the top RB and WR from last year in the NFL as well. Dykes has always leaned into offense, and I have confidence in him, but the most likely scenario is that they are not as good on that side of the ball as they were a year ago. They can be just as good if not better on defense and that might balance it out but being explosive is what led to a lot of wins last year. This team is improving the talent base overall but not to the point that they can just show up.

I do think that the Horned Frogs will be competitive again this season but this is a tough schedule to build on last year's success from. I think there is a better than zero chance that this TCU team starts the season 6-0, and still doesn't get the over this season (that back half of the schedule is really tough). That would be a cruel result but that is why I am taking the under. I am not sold on the proof of concept with TCU just yet.

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