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Texas quarterback Arch Manning. SARA DIGGINS/AMERICAN-STATESMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

NCAAF Top 25 futures: Texas Longhorns need to prove something on the way out

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 8/7/23

This is Texas' last season in the Big 12 before joining the SEC. To be honest, I think they need a really big year to enter their new league with some confidence. They need to get on track more than be back and that might mean leaning into their top recruit more than expected.

Arch Manning was one of the highest-rated recruits of the past decade and the Longhorns got him, somehow. However, if you are banking on Texas, that might be completely irrelevant this season. They need more than just a quarterback of the future to live up to their ranking and the idea of being among the leaders in the country again.

No. 9 Texas Longhorns 2023 Win Total

Over 9.5 -140 / Under 9.5 +120

Texas is definitely a very public team and you can see from that price that many are convinced that coach Steve Sarkisian has them on the right path. Given how many times they have burned bettors over the last decade, I am surprised there is so much support for this Longhorns team, one that lost their best player from a year ago, running back Bijan Robinson, to the NFL. The Big 12 is one of many leagues in flux and I am not taking it for granted that Texas is ready to dominate it in their last go around.

Last year Texas almost beat Alabama in Austin (but they didn't). This season, if they are truly back, they have a chance to show it when they visit Tuscaloosa in the second week of the season. That is by far their most challenging game. They are likely to be favored in all of their other games and the road schedule is not too taxing except for a trip to Fort Worth to take on national runner-up TCU. Oklahoma is not scaring me much this season and that is usually their Game of the Year. The overwhelming support for the over is partly a product of a light schedule.

Quinn Ewers looks the part at quarterback but it is fair to say that his career has been much more hype than production so far. This season he will not have two NFL running backs to hand off to so the focus is all on him. There is more than enough talent around him for this to be a very good offense and with Sarkisian around the ceiling is high. On the defensive side of things, it has been a long time since we thought of the Texas defense as being anything more than just OK - they used to be like SEC teams and put a lot of players in the NFL. I am not sure they are going to be much more than that this season and that is concerning, especially as they make their way to the SEC next season.

There are teams better than Texas that are going to finish behind them in the rankings. That schedule is the reason the markets are so bullish on a team that has been breaking hearts for so long and might even have a quarterback controversy. I am with the market on the over too, but there is not enough of a payoff to pull the trigger on Texas. If you are bullish on them take them to win outright at Alabama. That win would pay off nicely.

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