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USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) and head coach Lincoln Riley. Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports) ??

NCAAF Top 25 futures: USC looking to extend its proof of concept

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 8/7/23

Things turned around pretty quickly for the Trojans last season. The combination of head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Caleb Williams proved to work just as well on the West Coast and the general thinking is that USC is back on a path to greatness.

Even though the talk of the week has been about conference realignment, this was already going to be the Trojans' last season in the Pac-12. With so much upheaval the tone is going to be a little different than when it was just USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten. Nevertheless, the conference as it is currently constituted is going to be very competitive at the top.

No. 10 USC Trojans 2023 Win Total

Over 10 +100 / Under 10 -120

There is not much variance here with the numbers and not much room to work with either on those 10 wins. The Pac-12 is going to be wild this season and the realignment stuff is just part of it. USC is always a very public team and the markets are saying "not so fast" in terms of them climbing to the top of the nation in Riley's second season in SoCal. Their offense is good enough that they can beat any team.

USC is one of the few programs that has no FCS opponents on their schedule this season. The non-conference is very manageable, though their annual tilt with Notre Dame is in South Bend this year. USC also has a few coinflip games against the other elite teams in the Pac-12 — Utah, Washington, and Oregon. The first two of those are at home, but they take on the Ducks on the road the week after playing the Huskies. That is a really tough combination. The first half of the schedule should be a breeze but the second half includes four games in five weeks against Top 20 teams. That is SEC-level tough.

Williams won the Heisman last season. His presence makes the Trojans one of the best offensive teams in the nation and there is really no reason to expect that to change. Transfer receiver Jordan Addison is now in the pros, but he did not have the impact I was expecting. They are loaded on offense and there are going to be some ugly games when they really get things rolling. On the other side of the ball, they do appear to be improved but we have to see it on the field. Getting a defensive lineman (Bear Alexander) from Georgia was a major coup. It was not about him not cutting it there, but the realization that at USC he can dominate and be a star. Defensive improvement is what is going to make the difference for the Trojans if they want to be elite.

USC has a great chance to start the season 6-0 before that visit to Notre Dame in prime time. That gives them a ton of momentum and builds up some pressure too. Other than that, the only game that worries me is at Oregon in the second to last week of the season. I am leaning to the over because I am not seeing a third loss on the schedule, even though Utah always gives them fits. A positive payoff works too.

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