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Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

NCAAF top 25 futures: Volunteers look to prove they are legit back

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 8/3/23

Tennessee was one of the most exciting teams in the country last season. The Volunteers beat Alabama for the first time in "forever" and were the top offense in the nation in terms of scoring and yards, It was the first time they finished in the top 10 of the final AP rankings in more than 20 years, and all they have to do is do it again. Right?

Coming off that strong season, the expectations are very high for the Volunteers even though they lost their quarterback to the NFL. There is nowhere to go but down on offense, but there is still good reason to be excited about their prospects — and it is nice to have another SEC program in the discussion and capable of knocking off the teams at the top.

No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers 2023 Win Total

Over 9.5 +155 / Under 9.5 -180

Tennessee won 11 games last season, including a win over Clemson in the Orange Bowl. It was the Vols' first double-digit win season since 2007, and while the markets are not calling it a fluke, with that 9.5-win total and the heavy juice toward the under, there is a pretty strong opinion that this team is not nearly as good as last year's. Tennessee looks to be a program on the rise, but repeating success will be a challenge, especially in a league like the SEC — perhaps worthy of that impressive payoff though.

The 2023 schedule does set up for continued success. The Vols have a Power Five opponent in the opener, with Virginia about as light as that gets in that group this season. Austin Peay is an FCS school. UTSA, rounding out its nonconference schedule, might give them a fight, but that game is at home.

Shifting to the SEC slate, a visit to Alabama and a home date against Georgia are the largest potential stumbling blocks (obviously). Those teams are elite, and Alabama will be seeking revenge too. The rest of the schedule is manageable, especially on the road, where they are going to be favored everywhere but Tuscaloosa. They miss LSU, and Texas A&M and Florida are not scary.

Head coach Josh Heupel has proven he can ramp up offense everywhere he has been. This year he will be leaning on Joe Milton at quarterback, and he has all the talent needed to thrive in the system. The Vols also have a five-star freshman in reserve just in case.

The offense should be just fine leaning primarily on juniors and seniors. The defense has lots of room for improvement and is what currently separates them from the elite teams in the SEC and nationally. The Vols gave up a ton of passing yards last season, and while some of that could be a result of playing with big leads, a lot of the time they were in games where they gave up a lot of points to mediocre offenses. The 63 points they allowed at South Carolina might have cost them a playoff spot.

At 9.5 wins, a lot has to go right for the Vols to hit that over, but I am willing to take that risk. I am totally cool with losses, maybe even large ones against Bama and the Dawgs, coupled with comfortable wins against everyone else. Those losses might keep them firmly out of the playoff discussion, but the over is an enticing play.

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