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Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15). Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

NCAAF Week 6 Confirmations: Apply these lessons and win your Week 7 bets

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 10/9/23

We got a little drama late in some games last week but for the most part, Week 6 confirmed what we already knew. Georgia actually is great, Texas really isn't back, and Notre Dame was a pretender all along. Sometimes "we" bettors can be stubborn so we need to be shown how things are again and again ... haha. We are halfway through the season so we have a good amount of evidence of all the things we think we think at this point.

Week 6 Observation That Might Help ...

Georgia Makes a Statement

I have to admit I was wrong about Georgia last week. I was not predicting an upset, but I thought Kentucky would at least give the Dawgs a game. Instead, the Wildcats seem to have awoke the Bulldogs from their slumber and now the rest of the SEC and the nation may have to deal with the consequences. There are not many challenges left.

Betting takeaway ... get ready for some very big lines on UGA games. They are elite but probably best to stay away, the lines are going to be inflated.

Easy There, Texas

The Red River Rivalry did not disappoint unless you were rooting for Texas (who I did think would win). The game was close but the loss showed that the Longhorns are not quite "back." We may get a rematch in the Big 12 Championship but I do wonder about Texas the rest of the way. Now that their biggest game is out of the way they can sleepwalk through most of their schedule.

Betting takeaway ... The Longhorns are unlikely to be challenged the rest of the way. The lines might be getting a little too big though.

Doneso For ND

Notre Dame was really never a threat to make the playoffs for me. Sure they had the schedule to do it but that was why too, they were not nearly good enough to be perfect or a one-loss team this season with that slate ... and that was even with giving them a win against Louisville. Now they slump home with a couple of losses to face USC. They have not scored more than 21 points in the last three games so I am not expecting them to push USC too much.

Betting takeaway ... The markets are down on both of these teams. I think USC was just undermotivated last week while this game in primetime will have their attention. ND might give up if they are punched early.

ACC on the Rise?

Miami squandered an opportunity and made some headlines in the process. However, Louisville represented the league wonderfully in beating Notre Dame and there are now three undefeated teams in the ACC at the halfway point, plus Duke, who has yet to lose a conference game. Florida State is still in great shape but whoever they play in the ACC Championship might not hurt their profile.

Betting takeaway ... Similar to the Big Ten below, we are seeing some separation in the ACC. It might be simply the time to back the top and fade the bottom.

Separation in Big Ten

I was on Maryland to keep that game against OSU in range. They flubbed it, I think the moment just got too big for them and they lost their confidence (the play-calling was atrocious in the second half) and now there is obvious separation in the conference, if there wasn't already. I still think Michigan is the best of the trio of top-10 teams in the Big Ten but Ohio State is growing on me, They have really shown they can respond to adversity.

Betting takeaway ... I was looking to fade the Buckeyes in the big matchups this season but their grit might make them formidable underdogs, even if they don't win. They still probably have the best personnel but they might be a dog in a couple of spots.

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