NFL Draft Expert Thinks Arch Manning Might Be Even Better Than Advertised

"I’m not going to bury the lede: Based on Arch Manning’s 2024 tape—and assuming he continues developing at the pace he has to this point—I wouldn’t hesitate to make him my early No. 1 prospect in the 2026 draft class," McShay said in his recent scouting report of Manning. "He is that gifted and has shown immense potential in the limited playing time he’s had through his first two seasons at Texas."

So what made Manning so special in McShay's eyes?

Obviously, there was a variety of things. You don't get to be talked about in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick without that being the case.

But McShay believes Manning's combination of athletic tools and arm talent set him apart from anyone else in the 2026 class.

"This guy has it all, talent-wise. I’m not saying he’s Lamar Jackson as a runner or that he has Josh Allen’s arm, but Arch is tooled up," McShay said. "His combination of prototypical size, mobility, an excellent release, and his natural accuracy—it’s all there for him to be a great player. The ball snaps off his hand and he’s both slippery and strong in the pocket, showing the ability to extend passing plays and break away from defenders in the open field as a runner."

However, it is not just the size, speed, and arm strength that has McShay so enamored with Manning either - but also his ability to learn and adapt in his small amount of starting reps.

Last season, Manning started two games for Texas, and played the majority of the UTSA win in Week 3, lighting up the stat book in all three contests. And he did so by learning from his early mistakes and adjusting from one game to the next.

"In that small sample, I saw a young player who was learning from his failures, progressing quickly, and loosening his grip on needing to be perfect. The more he played, the fewer negative notes I had, and the more impressed I was at his ability to avoid making the same mistake twice," McShay said. "That points to a guy who’s hungry and coachable. Factor in his combination of raw talent, family background, and elite quarterback coaching in the form of Steve Sarkisian, and Arch in as good a position to succeed as any QB prospect in recent memory."

Obviously, Manning still has a long way to go before he can truly be considered in the conversation as one of college football's best QBs. Two and a half starts simply aren't enough to be in that discussion right now.

But if he can put together the same kind of impact performances consistently next season as he did during the small sample size from 2024, his name will absolutely have a chance to be mentioned among - not just in the same breath as former Texas greats like Young, Colt McCoy and Ewers - but the best to ever come through the game as an NFL prospect.