North Carolina vs Cal Prediction: Can Bill Belichick Start Winning?

North Carolina needs a lot of work.

Cal got rocked by San Diego State and Duke, pushed past Boston College, and if it gets its stuff together fast, it has the schedule to make a sleeper push for something big. But first, it has to hit the fat pitch across the plate.

How To Watch North Carolina vs Cal

Friday, October 17, 2025
Game Time: 10:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA

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Why North Carolina Will Win

This might be a true reboot.

After all the bad press, the horrible vibes, and bad performances, the Tar Heels had two weeks off to take a deep breath. The best possible thing might be a cross-country flight to the San Francisco area to play a game that should end at around 2:30 AM in Charlotte.

Cal has a slew of good pieces, but it has a big turnover problem with three in the loss to SDSU and four against Duke.

This is still Bill Belichick. Mock as you will about how this is all going, but the man is still an all-time genius at coaching a defense, and he had two weeks to prepare.

The Tar Heels came up with five turnovers in the two wins, two in the three losses, and …

Why Cal Will Win

North Carolina is powerful bad on third downs, and even worse at coming up with first downs.

It’s dead last in the nation in generating first downs, but to be fair, it has one fewer game played than most teams - it’s really more like 133rd.

This isn’t about the Tar Heels, though. It’s about Cal and its ability to finally start playing up to the level it showed in the win over Minnesota a few weeks ago. That happens if the downfield passing game works, so …

JKS has to survive the Belichick defense

Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a great young talent, but he has to limit the mistakes to pull this off.

He’s just 19. Belichick is 73 and famous for owning quarterbacks and offenses trying to figure it all out. Cal will pound away with the running game to take the heat off its main man, and that, combined with a lack of a Tar Heel pass rush, should keep the Bear moving.

North Carolina’s run defense has been terrific, but it’s getting killed by midrange passing games. JKS will play it safe, he’ll hit 65% of his passes, and very, very late - or early in the AM in some places - Cal will reenter the ACC chase.

North Carolina vs Cal Prediction, Betting Lines

Cal 27, North Carolina 20
Line: Cal -8.5, o/u: 47.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3

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