North Carolina vs. TCU score prediction by expert football model

Bill Belichick makes his anticipated college football debut on Monday night as North Carolina welcomes Big 12 hopeful TCU in this Week 1 matchup. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

All eyes are on Bill Belichick, the eight-time Super Bowl champion considered the single-most accomplished coach in NFL history, as he takes on a brand new challenge for himself, never having coached in the collegiate ranks in his career.

And his roster is something of a mystery, undergoing considerable turnover all over the field, and debuting South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez at the quarterback position, a player who brings a reputation as a dual-threat playmaker behind center.

In the Tar Heels’ way in Belichick’s debut is TCU, three years removed from playing for the national championship, just 14-11 overall since then, but coming off an improved 9-4 outing last season and returning a key piece at the most important position.

Josh Hoover reprises his role at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, a year after leading college football’s eighth-ranked passing offense, achieving career-highs with 3,949 passing yards on nearly 66 percent of his pass attempts, throwing 27 touchdowns, and averaging more than 8 yards per pass.

What do the analytics suggest as the Tar Heels and Horned Frogs meet on the same field?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how North Carolina and TCU compare in this Week 1 college football game.

North Carolina vs. TCU score prediction

As with most projections, this model is siding with the visiting team against Belichick’s squad in the opener, but by a pretty narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that TCU will defeat North Carolina by a projected score of 32 to 27 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5 points in the process.

The model gives the Horned Frogs a decent 62 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to bet the game

Along with the models, the sportsbooks are also giving a slight edge to the Horned Frogs over their ACC counterparts in this road game.

TCU is a narrow 3.5 point favorite against North Carolina, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for TCU at -166 and for North Carolina at +138 to win the game outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• TCU -3.5
• Frogs to win -166
• Bet over 54.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors heading into this matchup.

TCU is getting a slight majority of bets to take care of the Tar Heels in this Week 1 opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

A majority 56 percent of bets are siding with the Horned Frogs to beat Belichick’s team by at least four points and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 44 percent of wagers project North Carolina will either defeat TCU outright at home in the upset, or keep the margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are also siding with the Horned Frogs over the Tar Heels.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

TCU is the favorite over North Carolina on the index, coming out ahead in the majority 58.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Tar Heels as the presumptive winner in the remaining 41.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

TCU is projected to be 5.9 points better than North Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would also be enough for the Frogs to cover the spread against the Heels.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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College Football HQ prediction

Despite the lull from the national title game season, Sonny Dykes is still very successful at TCU overall, winning 27 of 40 games since taking over the program, and his current team is expected to finish convincingly in the better half of the competitive Big 12 this year.

Hoover’s return bodes extremely well for TCU, which will want to get its receivers out in the open early against a Carolina secondary that could let them.

Plenty of college football programs undergo roster changes every year, especially in the transfer portal era, but what UNC has gone through is another animal, with 70 newcomers to the program by transfer or from high school.

Even with continuity, the Tar Heels’ defense left something to be desired last season, ranking 89th in scoring, 80th against the pass, and 72nd in total production.

Belichick is known as a great defensive strategist, and his ability to build something out of this unit, combined with Lopez’s mobility, should keep Carolina within striking distance, but the Horned Frogs have more proven firepower moving the ball.

College Football HQ picks: TCU beats North Carolina and covers the spread.

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How to watch North Carolina vs. TCU

When: Mon., Sept. 1
Where: North Carolina

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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