North Carolina vs. UCF: Pick vs. Spread and Top Storylines

The UCF Knights will face their first true test of the season on Saturday, Sept. 20, when they take on North Carolina. UCF took care of business through its opening games against Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T, while the Tar Heels already have Big 12 experience this year, falling to TCU in Week 1. Since then, UNC has bounced back with consecutive wins over Charlotte and Richmond.

UCF is set to host North Carolina on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, with the Tar Heels entering as 6.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 48.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.

Two Key Players To Watch

Jaden Nixon (RB, UCF)

UCF boasts a balanced rushing attack under head coach Scott Frost, and running back Jaden Nixon made the most of his limited touches last weekend, racking up 156 yards and two touchdowns on just four carries, including an 87-yard burst. While the Knights haven’t faced a Power Five defense yet, Nixon may need a heavier workload to help UCF take down the Tar Heels. If he can replicate that explosiveness against a more talented front, it could open up the offense and take pressure off the passing game.

Demon June (RB, UNC)

Both teams bring talent to the backfield, and North Carolina’s Demon June made a splash last week with 148 rushing yards. With UNC’s quarterback play still finding its footing, head coach Bill Belichick may lean on the ground game once again when the Tar Heels take the field on Saturday. Despite winning by a large margin and holding North Carolina A&T to seven points, UCF’s defense still allowed 160 yards on the ground.

Two Key Storylines

UNC’s Struggles at Quarterback

Three games into the season, UNC has yet to see a quarterback throw for more than 160 yards. Even against lesser opponents, Gio Lopez has struggled with consistency. Meanwhile, UCF’s defense has held both of its opponents under 160 passing yards. If the Tar Heels can’t find an early rhythm on offense, this matchup could tilt in UCF’s favor at home. A slow start through the air would allow the Knights’ front seven to key in on the run. That could spell trouble for a UNC offense still trying to find balance.

Building Momentum Before Big 12 Play

If UCF can enter conference play at 3-0, it would give Frost’s squad a major boost of confidence after back-to-back below .500 seasons. Frost returned to Central Florida for a second stint with the opportunity to restore the program’s relevance. He famously led the Knights to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017, which marks the best in school history.

Prediction: UCF 24, North Carolina 17

UCF has looked sharp through two weeks, but Saturday will reveal whether the Knights are truly ready to take the next step under Frost. With a dynamic run game and a defense that hasn’t given up much through the air, UCF matches up well against a North Carolina team still searching for answers offensively. The Tar Heels haven’t found much rhythm at quarterback and have leaned heavily on the ground game to survive. That’s a tough formula to sustain on the road against a confident and physical UCF squad. If the Knights can continue to dictate pace and limit explosive plays, they could walk away with a statement win.