Northwestern vs. USC Prediction and Game Preview

1. Can Northwestern Slow Down USC’s Offense?
USC enters Friday night’s matchup ranked first nationally in offensive success rate and third in the Big Ten in scoring (39.8 points a game). The Trojans also rank No. 1 in the conference in passing offense, with quarterback Jayden Maiava sitting at No. 10 nationally in rating (164.4) and fourth in yards per attempt (9.8). Makai Lemon (50 catches for 776 yards) has been Maiava’s go-to target, but Ja’Kobi Lane (26 catches) is a valuable No. 2 weapon on the outside.

With the ability to put up points in a hurry through the air, Northwestern has to find ways to slow down USC’s high-powered attack. That’s easier said than done for Braun, as the Trojans have scored 30 or more points in six out of the team’s eight contests. The Wildcats can counter with a defense holding Big Ten opponents to 5.6 yards per play and a pass defense that’s allowed only six scores all year. 

Outside of facing off against Oregon on Sept. 13, Northwestern’s defense hasn’t faced off against an opponent with the amount of firepower on the USC roster. Finding ways to generate pressure on Maiava is a must, but the Wildcats may also have to bend a little to prevent big plays and make the Trojans work the length of the field.

2. USC’s Defensive Concerns
With an offense that can put up points in bunches, USC doesn’t need an elite defense to get to the playoff. Instead, the Trojans need a group that can get stops when it matters and force a couple of takeaways per contest.

USC ranks 12th in points allowed (22.4) among Big Ten teams, but a deeper look at the numbers shows concerns. Coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s group is giving up 5.6 yards a snap (13th in the Big Ten) and ranks No. 129 nationally in success rate against the run. That last number is especially important considering Northwestern’s style of play. The Wildcats like to lean on the rushing attack behind running backs Caleb Komolafe (608 yards) and Joseph Himon II (397) to pound the ball and keep USC’s high-powered offense on the sideline.

Although USC gave up 306 yards on the ground against Notre Dame, this unit held the other seven of its opponents under 200 rushing yards. If Lynn’s group delivers again by limiting Northwestern’s ground game and putting the offense into obvious passing situations, it’s tough to see a path for the Wildcats to pull off the upset. 

3. Northwestern QB Preston Stone
After transferring in from SMU, high expectations surrounded Stone this offseason. But instead of ranking among the Big Ten’s top quarterbacks, Stone has been up-and-down all year. Through eight games, Stone is completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,372 yards and 10 touchdowns to nine picks. If Northwestern doesn’t get its ground game on track, there will be a ton of pressure for Stone to deliver through the air to help open up lanes for the running backs or to execute on third-and-long situations. 

Final Score Prediction: USC 34, Northwestern 17

This game is all about whichever team can dictate its style of play. If USC’s offense gets on track and is up by two or three scores early, it’s tough to envision Northwestern keeping pace. The Wildcats need to run the ball to shorten the game and limit the possessions by the Trojans. Braun’s team may keep it close for a half. But eventually, USC has too much firepower and pulls away for a victory. 

ATS: USC -14.5
Over/Under: Over 49.5