Notre Dame vs. Purdue prediction, pick, odds for Saturday, Sept. 14

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction

All of the changes to the Purdue front seven have me worried about them stopping Notre Dame's rushing attack, so I will target the Boilermakers' lackluster offense.

Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 17.5 (+100 via bet365)

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Odds

Saturday, Sept. 14

3:30 p.m. ET

CBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Point Spread: Notre Dame +10 (-110), Purdue +10 (-110)
• Total: 45.5 (-110 both ways)
• Moneyline: Notre Dame -390, Purdue +310

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Preview

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Bounce Back Expected From D-Line

Things did not go well for Notre Dame offensively on Saturday against Northern Illinois. Riley Leonard is a good quarterback rusher, but he's limited as a downfield passer. He went 20-for-33 passing with only 163 yards and two interceptions.

The key for Notre Dame to succeed on offense is establishing the run. The Irish were able to do that in their opening game against Texas A&M, as Leonard and Jeremiyah Love both averaged over five yards per carry, which took the pressure off of Leonard having to throw the ball downfield at a high rate.

Mike Denbrock was supposed to be the perfect offensive coordinator for Riley Leonard after the success he had with Jayden Daniels at LSU in 2023. Quarterback runs are key for the Notre Dame offense to be successful, and Leonard was completely shut down against Northern Illinois.

Purdue was one of the best teams against quarterback-designed runs last year, ranking fourth in EPA per Rush allowed against those concepts, per Sports Info Solutions.

Notre Dame's defense wasn't that good against Northern Illinois, allowing a MAC team to move the ball at will and throw all over the secondary.

Because Northern Illinois established the run, Eli Hampton could average almost 10 yards per attempt on only 19 pass attempts, which is concerning.

The performance doesn't make much sense because Notre Dame has one of the best defensive lines in college football. The Irish have three returning starters from last season when they ranked 18th nationally in defensive line yards and 23rd in Stuff Rate.

They are facing a really bad Purdue rushing offense, so I expect a big bounce back here — look for the Irish to control the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Pick & Prediction

This is a really interesting spot for Notre Dame.

The Irish were 16-point favorites when this line was available before the Northern Illinois game and now have dropped a full six points down to only 10.

There were some really concerning things that happened for the Irish in that game against Northern Illinois that I am not sure are immediately fixable.

Leonard is not a good downfield passer. That was very evident when he was at Duke and even more now at Notre Dame. Denbrock has to find a way to establish the run and get Leonard going on the ground, but that will be difficult against a Walters-led defense that was one of the best in the nation at defending quarterback-designed runs in 2023.

I'm unsure how Purdue can move the ball.

Northern Illinois ran the ball OK, but Purdue ranked 70th in EPA per Rush last season and is one of the worst teams in short-yardage situations. On top of that, the Boilermakers are also terrible once they cross the 40-yard line, as they ranked 116th in finishing drives in 2023.

If Purdue cannot run the ball, that will put a lot of pressure on Hudson Card to throw the ball downfield, which he is well below average at doing.

All of the changes to the Purdue front seven have me worried about them stopping Notre Dame's rushing attack, so I will target Purdue's offense. With their limited ability to run the ball effectively, I like the value on their team total under 16.5 at +100.

Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 17.5 (+100 via bet365)

How to Watch Notre Dame vs Purdue Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Betting Trends

• Both of Notre Dame's games this season have gone under the total.
• Likewise, the total in Purdue's lone game this season went under.

About the Author

BJ Cunningham started betting in college and began his career with the Action Network as a part-time writer in January 2020, eventually becoming full-time. He previously worked as a financial auditor for six years and now specializes in European soccer, college football, and baseball betting, focusing on advanced data. BJ is a regular contributor to the Action Network's podcasts and live betting shows, including Wondergoal, Payoff Pitch, and Green Dot Daily.

Follow Brad Cunningham @BJCunningham22 on Twitter/X.