Ohio State vs. Texas prediction: Who wins, and why?

History will be made as Ohio State and Texas meet in the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal with a chance at the national championship on the line. Here’s what you should watch for as the Buckeyes and Longhorns square off, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State looks like arguably, or inarguably, the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff, recovering from that loss to Michigan by pounding its two postseason opponents.

Ryan Day’s Buckeyes throttled SEC challenger Tennessee at home in the first round and then clocked Big Ten champion Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal by an average of 23 points each.

Key to that success has been improved quarterback play, a more aggressive offensive approach, some of college football’s most dynamic wide receiver play, and punishing scrimmage defense.

But standing in their way is a formidable foe who, if you’ll forgive the stale joke, is clearly back.

Texas made the most of its inaugural season in the SEC, coming in at 13-2 but both those losses came against Georgia, once in the regular season and then in the SEC Championship Game.

Steve Sarkisian boasts one of the country’s most productive defenses and a veteran quarterback (and ex-Ohio State transfer) in Quinn Ewers, but both have been inconsistent at times.

Despite both schools playing football since the 1890s, Ohio State and Texas have met just three times in their history, with the Longhorns owning a slight 2-1 series edge.

The first matchup came in 2005, when Vince Young led Texas to a narrow three-point victory in Columbus en route to what remains Texas’ most recent national championship.

Ohio State repaid the favor the following year, dominating the Longhorns in a 24-7 decision in Austin, and would itself ultimately play for the national title that season.

Texas took the lead in this series with a narrow 24-21 win against the Buckeyes in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl, when Colt McCoy hit Quan Cosby for the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left.

The winner of this one will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game to play Orange Bowl semifinal champion Notre Dame on Jan. 20.

What can we expect as the Buckeyes and Longhorns square off in the Metroplex?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State and Texas meet in the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal, with our prediction for the game.

Ohio State vs. Texas prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. Whatever happens and whoever wins the battle up front as the Longhorns look to protect quarterback Quinn Ewers could ultimately decide the entire game.

And there’s some concern for Texas in that regard. In its two losses to Georgia, the line struggled badly to maintain its pass protection, allowing 13 combined sacks in those appearances.

That inability to give Ewers the appropriate time to find his receivers cut deeply into the Longhorns’ ability to build much of any momentum on offense.

Now that line goes up against an aggressive Ohio State front seven that has been building confidence in record time during its two-game playoff run.

That unit is responsible for 12 sacks already in that time, recording four against Tennessee and eight against Oregon, the latter number being more than half what the Ducks allowed all year.

Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau are two of the nation’s premier edge rushers, recording two sacks in the Rose Bowl each, and could cause a lot of problems up front.

Especially given Texas comes into this game ranked third-worst in the country in pressure rate allowed, one of just six teams to allow triple-digit stops behind the line on the year, and 7 per game on average, about what Ohio State averages on defense.

2. On the ground. While the quarterback tends to get most of the attention whenever offense is discussed, it’s the condition of this rushing attack that could help or hurt the Longhorns in this game.

And while Texas is averaging around 166 rushing yards per game, its backs have been on and off over the last few games.

When they’re off? In the SEC Championship Game against Georgia, they totaled just 31 yards on the ground on 28 attempts while averaging all of 1.1 yards per carry.

And when they’re on: In the first round playoff game against Clemson, they had two 100-yard backs and nearly eclipsed 300 total rushing yards while posting more than 6 yards per touch.

Then off again: In the Peach Bowl quarterfinal, the Longhorns mustered just 53 yards on 30 attempts and averaged only 1.8 yards per carry against a middling Arizona State run defense.

In its 13 victories, Texas averages 4.8 yards per carry, a number that fell to 1.1 ypc in its losses.

Ohio State is a top-five rush defense, ranks second nationally by allowing just 2.7 yards per attempt, and is one of six teams to surrender under 100 rushing yards per game on average.

In the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes held Oregon’s gifted ground game to minus-23 yards, and if their front brings a similar mentality, Texas could be in trouble early.

But OSU also let Michigan run for 172 yards in that upset, and the Longhorns have variety in the backfield with Tre Wisner, Jaydon Blue, and Jerrick Gibson, all quality options who can chip away at the scarlet and gray wall.

3. In the air. It’s no secret as to how Ohio State recovered from the Michigan loss and rediscovered its offensive identity once the playoff began. 

Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly did a 180 and swung away from the more restrained approach that failed in that game and opened things up in a big way over the last two outings.

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is key to that approach. A freshman of such skill that some analysts are speculating he could play in the NFL right now, Smith scored twice off 7 catches and covered 187 yards in the Rose Bowl win.

Emeka Egbuka is another critical piece of that puzzle, catching 10 passes for 153 yards in two playoff games, leading a receiver rotation that is much faster and more diverse than both previous Texas playoff opponents Clemson and Arizona State put on the field.

Texas has arguably the best secondary in the nation, letting opponents average just 166 passing yards this year and surrendering more than 200 yards in just two games and remarkably allowing just four passing touchdowns in the regular season.

But in two playoff games, the Longhorns have surrendered 632 passing yards from opponents and doubled their TDs surrendered, as quarterbacks have thrown four more in those outings.

Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -245 and for Texas at +198 to win outright.

Ohio State: -5.5 (-118)
Texas: +5.5 (-104)

Over 52.5 points: -118
Under 52.5 points: -104

Ohio State vs. Texas prediction: Who wins?

For all the talk about great offense and elite skill players, this Cotton Bowl will be a fight between two of the top-ranked defensive units in college football.

Ohio State and Texas both rank in the top-three or four out of 134 FBS teams in total defensive production, yards per play allowed to opponents, scoring, and passing yards allowed.

But both those skilled defenses will be tested by a cadre of legitimate deep threats on both sides.

Ewers may have been inconsistent, but he still amassed almost 3,200 passing yards and scored 29 touchdowns, and is dealing to targets like Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond, Gunnar Helm, DeAndre Moore, and Ryan Wingo.

But if the Buckeyes can apply just enough pressure early to throw Ewers out of rhythm and keep him on the move and delay his decisions, they can throw the Texas offense off schedule.

Texas’ secondary can disrupt Ohio State’s vertical passing game, but it yet to face a downfield attack of this caliber, and between these two offenses, the Buckeyes have the personnel to navigate that coverage and be the more consistent unit through all four quarters.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ohio State wins 30-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Texas score prediction by football model

How to watch the 2025 Cotton Bowl Semifinal Game

When: Fri., Jan. 10
Where: Arlington, Tex.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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