Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

The latest prediction for Oklahoma vs. Auburn in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores heading into this critical SEC matchup.

A critical SEC opener kicks off this weekend from Norman as the No. 11 Sooners return home from a big win at Temple to take on No. 22 Auburn.

It’s another prove-it moment for Oklahoma, which already passed one crucial test at home against Michigan, but this game represents the first of many on what will be a punishing SEC schedule that will show us exactly what this team is made of.

So far, OU has played dominant defense up front and is getting solid production from dual-threat quarterback John Mateer, but they’ll be challenged by the Tigers here.

Jackson Arnold, the former five-star quarterback who initially played for the Sooners, returns to his old school looking to show he made the right decision.

He’s joined by a blue-chip cast of skill weapons including wide receivers Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, in addition to running back Jeremiah Cobb, and Arnold can run the ball more than a little himself, too.

Auburn is hoping to get more from Arnold, who leads a passing attack that ranks a meager 110th nationally in total output, averaging just under 174 yards per game, but the ground game has picked up the slack, placing 16th with 242 yards on average.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Sooners and Tigers meet in this SEC opener?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Auburn compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction

As might be expected, the models are siding more with the home team over the visitor, but it foresees a pretty close game this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Auburn outright, and do so by a projected score of 28 to 21 and to win the game by an expected margin of 7.4 points.

The model gives the Sooners a solid 68 percent chance to win the game and stay undefeated.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 70-75 against the spread with a 48.3 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The books are still calling the Sooners the favorite over the Tigers on their home ground.

Oklahoma is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -260 and for Auburn at +210 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oklahoma -6.5
• Sooners to win -260
• Bet over 46.5 points

Doing so would put you in the company of most bettors coming into this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oklahoma is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game by at least a touchdown and cover the narrow point spread to stay undefeated.

The other 35 percent of wagers project Auburn will either beat the Sooners outright in an upset to avoid its first loss, or keep the margin under a touchdown in defeat.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also expect the Sooners will take care of business against the Tigers coming into this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is a sizable favorite in the matchup over Auburn, coming out ahead in 65.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.7 percent of sims.

Despite that discrepancy between the teams when it comes to a straight-up prediction, the model still expects to see a close game on the scoreboard when calculating the final margin.

After simulating the game 20,000 times, the computer projects Oklahoma will be just 3.9 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Auburn vs. Oklahoma game winner

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How to watch Auburn at Oklahoma

When: Sat., Sept. 20
Where: Oklahoma

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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