One-on-One: Who can break up Clemson-Alabama monopoly?

Rooney: It's perennially tempting to declare that yes, this is year that the playoff picture gets shaken up, that a Group of Five squad breaks through, that a new champ emerges -- aside from residents of South Carolina and Alabama, it's what everyone is rooting for. And after last year, when pundits and fans alike seemed convinced Clemson didn't have a shot in the title game, we can at least concede that popular opinion doesn't always align with result. The Crimson Tide showed some progressive vulnerability in their three biggest games of the season last season, particularly on defense: Bama surrendered 454 yards to Georgia in the SEC title game, 471 to Oklahoma in playoff semifinal and 482 in the loss to Clemson. The Tigers, meanwhile, lose four starters from last year's vaunted defensive line (three of them were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft).

But forgetting about Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State for a minute, there are intriguing teams a little further down in the rankings.  I think No. 10 Texas is the classic powerhouse poised for a renaissance. Heading into Tom Herman's third season, the Longhorns have an experienced and versatile QB in Sam Ehlinger and exciting players at skill positions. If they can get through LSU in Week 2 and Oklahoma three weeks later, the rest of their regular season schedule is winnable.

I'm also high on No. 14 Utah. The Pac-12 is desperate to sniff the postseason for first time since Alabama hammered Washington in 2017, and the Utes are the real deal. Kyle Whittingham's teams might be known for smashmouth defense, but this year they have offense to go with it. Tyler Huntley was one of the most efficient and prolific QBs in the conference last year before getting hurt, and he has future NFL-er Zack Moss in the backfield.

As good as these teams look on paper and in camp, it's hard to envision them besting our reigning royalty. Alabama and Clemson may traditionally get it done in the trenches, and seem to always be able to reload up front, but this year it's some of the skill players who really stand out. Jerry Jeudy, last year's Biletnikoff award winner, is back at receiver for the Tide. Over in Clemson, they have the 1-2 punch of Justyn Ross at receiver and Travis Etienne at running back -- each explosive and now with plenty of big-game experience. And have we really gone this long in a conversation about Clemson and Alabama without mentioning Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa? They're the two best at their position, period.

While it may not be exactly a foregone conclusion that both Clemson and Bama will have undefeated regular seasons again (though November cupcake contests against Wofford and Western Carolina, respectively, don't hurt), it seems plausible.

Which, if any, games on their schedules do you think they should be worried about?

Weinreb: It would be nice for those of us who invest in fried-butter futures if Texas was actually “back,” but I’m not entirely convinced, and this chart explains why. They have eight returning starters, fewer than any other major-college team in the country. Ehlinger may take a huge leap this year, but I’m not sure he has enough to cover for what may be some weaknesses on defense, and I’m not sure if they’ll be able to pull all that young talent together quickly enough to beat LSU.

And just to further spoil your party, Utah has tricky road games at USC and Washington. Whittingham might indeed be the most underrated coach in the country, but this is a program that hasn’t lost fewer than three games in a season since 2008. 

And my concern is that the Pac-12’s relative parity will once again leave it out of the playoff entirely — in a way, it’s as if all the angst that surrounded the Big Ten a few years back has migrated west and landed square on embattled Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott’s back. This also feels like a make-or-break season for Oregon, which is now five years removed from its last national championship game appearance and could be on the verge of falling out of the upper echelon of the sport if quarterback Justin Herbert has a disappointing season. 

Somebody must emerge as standard-bearer of this league if it wants to make a comeback, and I don’t think Utah is the long-term answer. And USC may still be lost in the wilderness.

To your question about Alabama and Clemson’s schedule: It kind of blows my mind that the over-under on Clemson’s win total is set at 11.5. It’s not easy to go undefeated two seasons in a row, and there are a couple of games that could trip up the Tigers. Remember when they lost at Syracuse a couple of years ago? Well, Syracuse is even better now under Dino Babers — assuming new quarterback Tommy DeVito quickly adapts to the system. The Orangemen are one of those scary up-tempo teams that poses a challenge even for a juggernaut like Clemson, and the Tigers play at the Carrier Dome on Sept. 14. There’s also a red-flag game at N.C. State in November, but even if Clemson loses just one of these, they’ll probably get a playoff mulligan.

As for Bama, I don’t see much in the way of a challenge until Oct. 12, when they go to Texas A&M coming off a bye. We’ve seen the Aggies do it before, and Jimbo Fisher might not have a Johnny Manziel, but he appears to have a legit quarterback in Kellen Mond. That’s the kind of game that could elevate the Aggies into the SEC’s upper echelon. Alabama also has Mississippi State in November coming off a bye —who knows what to expect from Joe Moorhead in Year 2 as coach? —and then, after that de facto SEC bye week against Western Carolina, they finish up at Auburn. I’m kind of bullish on Bo Nix as Auburn’s quarterback, though it’s possible that the Tigers implode amid one of the toughest schedules in the country.

But for the sake of this exercise, let’s just assume that Alabama and Clemson wind up with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the playoff. If you were forced by a roving band of pollsters to pick those third and fourth playoff teams, where would you land?

Rooney: Texas and Utah may not be complete teams, but I expect both to play better than in recent seasons. I think their current rankings are probably fairly accurate, and they'll need a lot to go right in order to secure those playoff berths. But I guess that's why I'm calling them dark horses. And hey, Las Vegas, at least, seems to be on board with the Longhorns!  

As for Utah's schedule, I'm not nearly as sold on Washington as others seem to be. Four-year starting QB Jake Browning is gone, and, to use the metric of returning starters, they only have nine. And as much as it pains this USC alum to admit that the Trojans might in fact be simply wandering through a forest of mediocrity until they move on from Clay Helton, I'm not convinced they've made a significant leap in solving the issues that led to last year's 5-7 campaign.

But all this to say, I still think it's much more likely that this year's cast of playoff characters probably won't change much. I'm taking Georgia in the third spot. As we learned in 2018, a second SEC team is always a good bet to make it in, even with a loss. The Bulldogs made it in that year, and they're poised to be much better this year, after three-straight top-three recruiting classes. At the most important position — quarterback — Georgia is only a step behind Clemson and Alabama. In fact, Jake Fromm finished 2018 ahead of Lawrence in passing efficiency, completion percentage and passing yards per completion last year.

Fromm's lost a couple key targets this year, but that should be more than compensated for in the run game by the perfectly named D'Andre Swift, who averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season. And that unit, like most on this Georgia squad, is deep. The offensive line, which could be the best in the country, returns six players with starting experience. The D-line not only returns six seniors, but also one of last year's breakout underclassmen in Jordan Davis. Georgia's schedule is daunting, but aside from trips to Auburn and Florida (admittedly rather unfortunate road games), the Bulldogs get the toughest opponents at home. 

I'm gonna put my faith in America's most famous khaki aficionado (aside from this guy, anyway) for the fourth spot. I think this could be the year Jim Harbaugh and Michigan break through. Technically, my faith in the Wolverines has less to do with Harbaugh, who's 0-4 against Ohio State, than with Shea Patterson. For the first time in Harbaugh's tenure, Michigan has the edge at QB, over new Buckeyes' starter Justin Fields. There's every reason to think Patterson, who finished 2018 with 2,600 passing yards and 22 touchdowns, should be more prolific under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. Gattis runs a spread offense, not unlike what Patterson saw during his time at Ole Miss. Most importantly, though, Michigan gets its nemesis at home.

Still, it's hard for me to embrace the idea that Georgia, Michigan or anyone else, really, can beat Clemson and Alabama. One year our children may scoff at our far-fetched tales of SEC and ACC dominance and a paltry four-team playoff system, but 2019 isn't that year. 

Weinreb: My third and fourth teams? Oklahoma and Washington. Book it.