Ken Ruinard / staff, The Greenville News via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Paul Finebaum Predicts Surprise SEC Team Will Crash Back to Reality in 2025

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jaron Spor | Last updated Jun 16, 2025 2:00 PM ET

The 2024 college football season saw several programs make strong comebacks after years of underperformance.

The Indiana Hoosiers, for example, improved dramatically from three consecutive seasons with four wins or fewer to an impressive 11-2 record, earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. They were not the only team to experience a successful 2024 season following years of disappointment.

The Vanderbilt Commodores also made headlines, finishing the previous season with a 7-6 record, marking their first winning season since 2013, which was the last year James Franklin coached at Vanderbilt.

A significant highlight of their season was a thrilling 40-35 victory over the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. This victory was particularly noteworthy as it marked Vanderbilt's first win over Alabama since 1984.

However, during the "The Paul Finebaum Show," the SEC Network analyst expressed skepticism about the teams replicating their success in the upcoming season.

"By the time he gets that open date, got a pretty good chance at three losses," Finebaum said of Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea. "That's before he has LSU, Missouri, Texas and Auburn. It's not going to happen this time around."

Athlon Sports' Kyle Wood has ranked Vanderbilt among the teams with the toughest schedules in the conference. As Finebaum mentioned, Vanderbilt could face a challenging season, potentially going winless on the road.

Its schedule includes road matches against the Virginia Tech Hokies, South Carolina Gamecocks and Alabama in the first half of the season. Additionally, it will play against two playoff teams from a year ago on the road in the Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers during the latter half of the season.

This means Vanderbilt will be up against four teams likely aiming for the College Football Playoff, plus a Virginia Tech team that is tough to beat at home and managed to defeat Vanderbilt on the road last September.

ESPN's Football Power Index aligns with Finebaum's assessment, predicting that the Commodores will struggle this season. The FPI forecasts them to win only four games, placing their ranking last in the SEC.

On a positive note, Vanderbilt ranks No. 8 in the nation for returning production, with 70% of its team returning for the upcoming season. The standout player is quarterback Diego Pavia, who had an impressive season last year, throwing for 2,293 yards and 20 touchdowns, while also rushing for 801 yards and eight touchdowns.

Pavia was able to return because he began his college career at the junior college level before transferring to New Mexico State and then eventually Vanderbilt. Playing at the junior college level preserved his COVID year, and because he hadn’t played four full FBS seasons, he remained eligible for one more year in 2025.

The Commodores will kick off their season against the Charleston Southern Buccaneers on Aug. 30 at 7 p.m. ET.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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