Penn State Can Win a National Championship This Season. Here's Why it Will — or Won't

Penn State’s starting quarterback enters the most anticipated season of his career in the best shape of his life. The third-year starter is down 10 pounds, to 235, and in his words, is “the fastest and strongest" he has been at Penn State.

That transformation should pay dividends for the Nittany Lions. A faster Allar will extend plays and be more of a dual-threat quarterback. That mobility will pair well with his elite pocket presence. Additionally, a stronger Allar will be harder to take down on the move and behind the line of scrimmage.

Negative: Allar still has that big-game history

Allar is 1-5 against AP top-10 teams in his two years as the starter. Further, he has completed 85 of 172 passes (49.4 percent) for 939 yards (156.5 per game), 10 touchdowns and four interceptions in those six games. Last year, Allar completed 71.6 percent of his passes during the regular season and 53.2 percent in the postseason. It’s no secret that if Penn State wants to take that next step, its quarterback needs to produce in big games.  

If he doesn’t get over the hurdle, the Nittany Lions’ roster is still good enough to earn a playoff berth. But their national-championship hopes diminish significantly.  

Positive: Penn State’s transfer receivers complement each other

Penn State’s three transfer receivers (Trebor Peña, Kyron Hudson and Devonte Ross) have garnered significant interest from fans. But what many haven’t discussed is how they complement each other, which will make it harder for opposing defenses to gameplan against the Nittany Lions. 

Hudson is a sure-handed wideout and strong red-zone target, Peña runs a dynamic route tree, and Ross is a downfield threat. The trio combines everything Penn State needs at receiver. And since the receivers complement each other so well, Penn State’s need for a No. 1 receiver isn’t as glaring. As a result, Allar can spread the ball instead of locking onto a primary target.

Negative: The defensive line room is thin

Unlike in past years, Penn State’s defensive line doesn’t yet have rotational depth. Yes, it features stars in defensive tackle Zane Durant and Dennis-Sutton. But veterans Zuriah Fisher and tackle Alonzo Ford Jr. are returning from injuries, and the linemen behind them are raw.

In a long Big Ten season, that lack of depth could prove costly (and linebacker isn't any deeper). The Nittany Lions’ stars might not be fresh either for key fourth quarters or in the postseason. If Penn State’s defense struggles, the defensive line will be a factor. 

Positive: Seniors return for career-defining seasons

After the Orange Bowl, a group of Penn State players sat around their hotel room, reflecting on the loss to Notre Dame. Then they looked ahead.

“When you get that close to something that you want, you don't just accept that it’s over when you have an opportunity to make it right,” center Nick Dawkins said.

Allar, Durant, Dennis-Sutton and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen led a group of players who returned despite being eligible for the 2025 NFL Draft. They did so primarily to win a title, which has become a national narrative for the Nittany Lions, as it was for Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State last year.

The returning players certainly could boost their draft values, some perhaps into the first round. That benefits more than the seniors; teammates who watch how they practice and play will improve. Penn State’s returning players will set the tone this season, which also will establish a new foundation for the future.  

Negative: Inexperience at backup quarterback

Allar is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but his backups have attempted just two career passes, both by Ethan Grunkemeyer. Jaxon Smolik has yet to take a snap, having missed the 2024 season with an injury. There's little game experience behind Allar.

In 2024, the Nittany Lions had Beau Pribula for the regular season. He replaced an injured Allar at Wisconsin and pulled off a pivotal road win. Penn State can win a regular-season road game with its backup, but not a title. Franklin must integrate both quarterbacks into non-conference games to prepare them just in case.