Penn State football a ‘solid’ CFP contender in post-spring SP+ update

James Franklin and Penn State football are still firmly among the programs poised to make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff this fall, says Bill Connelly of ESPN. Released this week, Connelly’s post-spring SP+ update kept the Nittany Lions on the cusp of the top five, making the Blue and White a “solid” contender for the 2024 CFP.

Penn State football remains at No. 7 in post-spring SP+ update

On Tuesday, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released the post-spring version of his popular analytics tool, SP+. Connelly held Penn State football at No. 7 nationally, where the Nittany Lions fell in his February update.

Overall, James Franklin’s program totaled 26.8 points in the predictive metrics that Connelly uses to compile the rankings, up from 25.6 in the last SP+.

Penn State lost ground on the top five, however. Michigan ranked fifth in February’s SP+ with 27 total points. Now, Alabama holds that spot with 29.1.

The full top 10 is as follows:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Michigan
7. Penn State
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
10. Notre Dame

The Nittany Lions’ defense and special teams held firm following the spring, still ranked No. 4 and No. 28 in the nation, respectively. Andy Kotelnicki’s offense dipped slightly, from No. 18 to No. 23.

Nittany Lions among list of teams of “solid” contenders to make CFP

Penn State football has been on a historic run since James Franklin arrived in Happy Valley in 2014: five 10+ win seasons, a Big Ten Championship, five New Year’s Six Bowl appearances, and three NY6 wins.

However, James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have not been good enough to get over the hump and into the College Football Playoff. But an expanded CFP field gives Penn State much more wiggle room.

Connelly has the Nittany Lions with a 73% chance of going 10-2 or better in 2024. That puts Franklin in prime position to make his first playoff appearance this season.

“Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon all start out in great playoff shape, while some combination of high quality and permissiveness from the schedule gives Penn State, Missouri, Texas, Ole Miss, Michigan, Alabama, and probably Notre Dame and LSU solid odds as well,” Connelly wrote. “After that, the picture gets pretty blurry.”

With the 34th-ranked strength of schedule this year, there are relatively few stumbling blocks for Penn State. Of course, everyone has the November 2 matchup versus Ohio State circled as the toughest test of the season.

Simply assuming that the chalk holds on this version of the SP+, the only way the Nittany Lions would suffer a second loss would be one of the three Big Ten foes ahead of them in the conference title game. If that happens, the Blue and White should be a surefire bet to reach the CFP for the first time ever.