Penn State Predictions: Will PSU Make it to Phoenix?

Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now

You know what they say about teams from the south and cold weather. Most of the time it’s true, and it won’t break 30 degrees in State College on Saturday.

As for the game, it’s a shame Beau Pribula had to transfer out right now, but it may actually help in the long run. It was a given that it was probably some sort of run when Pribula was in the game. Maybe Tyler Warren will take a brunt of that work now. Either way, expect Andy Kotelnicki to keep digging in the box of creativity.

Prediction: Penn State 35, SMU 20

KYLE GOLIK, MIKE FARRELL SPORTS/JOE & THE FATMAN

CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 07: SMU Mustangs running back Brashard Smith (1) is surrounded by several Clemson defenders during the ACC championship football game between the SMU Mustangs and the Clemson Tigers on December 7, 2024 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte N.C. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

I feel this game between PSU/SMU is literally like the Spiderman episode “Double Identity” where the famous meme is.

Neither team really has that signature/marquee win but both teams took care of business where they needed to. The weather will impact both sides. I don’t trust Penn State’s wide receivers in this one to be able to exploit a poor SMU secondary and pass defense. Both sides have elite defensive lines. Two names to watch out for from the Mustangs are Elijah Roberts and Jahfari Harvey who are their versions of Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton. This will be a low scoring, tug of war. I sense more heartbreak from Penn State because kicker Ryan Barker has been shaky lately (missed three of his last seven kicks) having that 40-yard miss in Indianapolis, it is fair to say that in a game like this special teams will play a factor. SMU’s kicker Collin Rogers led the ACC in field goals and is one 50-yard field goal make away from tying the NCAA record. I like SMU to pull the upset because they will keep it close and have a distinct special teams advantage.

Prediction: SMU 19, Penn State 17

ZACH SEYKO, LOCKED ON NITTANY LIONS PODCAST

Penn State announced their second-largest crowd in Beaver Stadium history with 110,830.

SMU doesn’t have the … horses … to keep up with Penn State. This is the best team the Mustangs have played by far. Plus, combined a hostile crowd and unruly weather with an inexperienced quarterback in Kevin Jennings, and it will lead to costly mistakes against an elite Penn State team.

Penn State 35, SMU 21

JARROD PRUGAR, ALTOONA MIRROR/NITTANY SPORTS NOW

Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now: Nick Singleton

While this isn’t the Pony Express of old, it’s a refreshing brand of football from SMU, a program which has been an upstart in the ACC. The Mustangs haven’t faced a team quite like Penn State this season, but have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. On the flip side, the Penn State will have a chance to host a game in December at Beaver Stadium. The last time Penn State played, it did so at an elite level on the ground. To advance to the quarterfinals they’re going to need to get the run game going early and out-physical SMU.

Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 17

JOE SMELTZER, NITTANY SPORTS NOW

Kaytron Allen celebrates a fourth quarter score.

I don’t think either team will have an easy time passing the ball. Unless the wind is crazy, it won’t be an issue of Penn State QB Drew Allar or SMU QB Kevin Jennings throwing it. Rather, it will be Penn State and SMU’s receivers trying to basically catch a brick. Penn State’s receivers have enough issues when the sun is out, so I wouldn’t expect a big day from Allar unless tight end Tyler Warren delivers.

Fortunately for Penn State, I think the latter is not only possible but likely.

SMU ranks 92nd in pass defense, and the last time I checked, the tight end is part of the passing game. Warren is the best tight end in the country, and I think the Mackey Award winner will deliver again. 

But I don’t think Warren can do it alone. Penn State has to run the ball against the No. 4 run defense in the country. That won’t be easy. With that said, after watching PSU’s offensive line dismantle Oregon’s defensive line, allowing the running game to pick up 297 yards, I’m confident that Penn State will win the trench battle.

Defensively, Tom Allen has a top-five unit in the country. After giving up 45 points to Oregon, I’m not expecting another lackluster performance.

If Penn State wins the trench battle and plays well defensively, it will advance to the Fiesta Bowl, at least per most predictions.

Prediction: Penn State 24, SMU 13

These are our Penn State predictions. What are yours?