Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: What the analytics say

Penn State and Boise State will face off in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round in the 2024 edition of the Sugar Bowl. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Penn State moved to 12-2 after a dominant first round performance against SMU in which its defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns in a 28-point rout.

Boise State took the first round off after winning the Mountain West championship and comes in fielding one of college football’s most lethal weapons: Heisman finalist tailback Ashton Jeanty, who has 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns on the season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Penn State vs. Boise State prediction

As expected, the models favor the Big Ten team over the Group of Five challenger, and by a fairly big margin, as well.

Penn State is a sizable favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 64.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game against the Broncos.

But while Boise State isn’t projected to win the game, it still came out ahead in the remaining 35.2 percent of the index’s simulations for the matchup.

In total, the Nittany Lions prevailed in 12,960 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Broncos edged out PSU in the other 7,040 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Boise State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Nittany Lions to cover the point spread in this game.

That’s because Penn State is a 10.5 point favorite against Boise State, according to the most recent lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -430 and for Boise State at +330 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors expect the Broncos will give the Nittany Lions a proper challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Boise State is getting 58 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to 10 or fewer points in a loss.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Penn State will cover this big point spread in a victory.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How to watch the 2024 Fiesta Bowl Game

When: Thurs., Dec. 31
Where: Glendale, Ariz.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.