Penn State vs. SMU Prediction

Penn State hosts SMU in the first of three College Football Playoff games on Saturday, Dec. 21. The winner of this game will advance to the quarterfinals to play Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31. This is the third all-time meeting between the Nittany Lions and the Mustangs. The last matchup took place in 1978, but the first one (1948) was also held in the postseason (Cotton Bowl).

Penn State's 11-2 record marked the third consecutive season the program posted double-digit victories. Coach James Franklin's squad suffered losses to fellow playoff teams in Ohio State (20-13) and Oregon (45-37) but could have a chance at revenge if it can win a couple of games in the field. The Nittany Lions won eight of their 11 games by more than one score, including a 21-7 victory versus Illinois and a 35-6 win over Washington. 

Behind Indiana, SMU is arguably the biggest surprise team in the playoff this year. Skepticism surrounded how well the Mustangs would transition from the American Athletic Conference to the tougher ACC this season. However, coach Rhett Lashlee's balanced team won 11 games against a favorable slate and secured a trip to the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. The Mustangs made a valiant comeback after falling behind early on, and the effort was enough for this team to secure the final at-large spot after a last-second defeat to the Tigers.

Of the first-round games, Penn State is the second-biggest favorite on the board. The Nittany Lions are favored by more than a touchdown (-8.5), which ranks second to Texas (-12). Although no accumulating snow is expected, temperature at kickoff could hover in the 20s with wind also concern. 

SMU at Penn State

College Football First-Round Playoff Game
Location: Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa.
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 21 at Noon ET
TV: TNT
Spread: Penn State -8.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Announcers: Mark Jones, Roddy Jones, Quint Kessenich, and Tom Luginbill 

Why Penn State Will Win

A cold weather game with windy conditions should favor Penn State's style of play. The Nittany Lions rank first in the Big Ten in rushing offense, averaging 202.2 yards a game behind the standout one-two punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton led the team with 838 yards, with Allen (822) not far behind. Those two players have also combined for 13 scores on the ground. And if that duo isn't enough for SMU, Franklin and coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will also deploy tight end Tyler Warren (23 carries) in key situations on the ground. The Mustangs led the ACC in rush defense, but Penn State also presents the best combination of offensive line and backfield talent this unit has faced this season.

If SMU is able to slow the ground attack, Kotelnicki can feel comfortable putting the game in the hands of junior quarterback Drew Allar. Although Allar's numbers aren't overly prolific (222.6 yards a game), the Ohio native has showed marked progress after uneven play at times during the '23 campaign. Warren is easily Allar's favorite target, as the tight end has grabbed 88 catches for 1,062 yards and six touchdowns. Receiver Harrison Wallace II (39 catches) is next up, followed by Omari Evans (19), Julian Fleming (14), and Liam Clifford (17). The Mustangs are vulnerable - especially at cornerback - to opposing passing games, allowing 24 touchdown passes and 11 completions of 40-plus yards this year.

SMU's offense has been held under 30 points just three times over its 13 contests in '24. But Penn State has the right mix of scheme and players to match the Mustangs' high-powered offense. Coordinator Tom Allen's group ranks in the top 20 of defensive success rate against both the run and the pass. The Nittany Lions also held opponents to 4.7 yards a snap and generated 33 sacks. The Mustangs were vulnerable up front early in the year, but the emergence and mobility of Jennings at quarterback solved some of the concerns in the trenches. Penn State should test this group with edge rusher Abdul Carter (10 sacks) and tackle Zane Durant (three sacks).

The Nittany Lions possess the best defense SMU has faced this year. Allen's group may take a couple of series to find their footing, but eventually, Carter and the rest of Penn State's strength and depth will take over in the second half.

Why SMU Will Win

SMU has been doubted throughout the 2024 season and is an underdog on Saturday. Lashlee's team can use the doubt for motivation once again and has nothing to lose as the underdog and the last team into the field. With all of the pressure on Penn State, the Mustangs can play loose and take a few chances to pull off the upset.

In addition to the intangibles, SMU's speedy offense is a tough matchup for Penn State's standout defense. Quarterback Kevin Jennings averaged 263.8 total yards a game this year and provided the offense with a spark after this unit started slow in the early parts of the '24 season. The mobility of Jennings should allow the Mustangs to keep plays alive if the Nittany Lions are having success at collapsing the pocket. 

In addition to the all-around playmaking ability of Jennings, SMU has the speed and talent at receiver to test Penn State's secondary. Roderick Daniels (38 catches), Key'Shawn Smith (31), and Jordan Hudson (35) lead the way on the outside and help Jennings direct a passing game that landed six plays of 50-plus yards in '24. Running back Brashard Smith (1,270 yards and 14 TDs) is one of college football's most underrated playmakers.

Penn State's offense is certainly one of the better groups SMU's defense has faced this year. However, the Mustangs have proven all season just how solid this unit is. Entering Saturday's playoff showdown, SMU leads the ACC in rush defense (93.4 yards a game allowed), limits teams to 4.65 yards a snap, and ranks 15th nationally in defensive success rate.

Tackle Jared Harrison-Hunte (eight tackles for a loss, edge rusher Jahfari Harvey (seven sacks), linebacker Kobe Wilson (110 tackles), and safety Isaiah Nwokobia (96 stops) give coordinator Scott Symons a stalwart at every level - and more than enough talent to slow Penn State's rushing attack and force the offense to win through the air on long-yardage situations. 

Final Analysis

SMU's speed and tempo meets Penn State's power and edge in roster talent in Happy Valley for an intriguing clash of styles. If the Mustangs can the ball in space and let Jennings create with his legs, Lashlee's team has more than enough to pull off the upset. However, the weather and overall setup favors the Nittany Lions at home. Franklin's team should be able to lean on Singleton and Allen for huge games, as Penn State pulls away in the third quarter for the victory and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31.

Prediction: Penn State 31, SMU 20