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It's starting to sound like a dull thud every time one of these preseason projections hits the newstands as get to this point every year

Phil Steele, the respected college football prognosticator whose annual magazine sets the tone for preseason debates, released his 2025 SEC predictions, and Arkansas landed near the conference’s bottom.

While it's not particularly shocking, for a program desperately seeking momentum, the ranking echoed doubts that have trailed the Razorbacks for years.

Steele’s forecast, published this week, places Arkansas in a tie for 11th in the expanded 16-team SEC, with only Kentucky and Mississippi State below.

“Year six for Sam Pittman at Arkansas will be a pivotal one for the 63-year-old head coach,” Steele wrote, pointing out the obvious complaints from a 30-31 record over five seasons, including a disappointing four-win campaign in 2023 and a modest 7-6 rebound last fall.

This forecast is more than just a preseason dart throw. For Pittman, 2025 very likely could be a make-or-break campaign.

“Making a bowl will be crucial for the Razorbacks this season,” Steele wrote, underscoring how the stakes have shifted. Pittman was hired in 2020 as a program builder, but patience is wearing thin.

As Athlon Sports recently pointed out, Pittman is among a handful of SEC coaches on the “hot seat.”

One anonymous SEC coach telling On3, “Arkansas’ roster will have Sam Pittman on the hot seat” if the Hogs don’t make tangible progress.

The Razorbacks’ recent trajectory has been a roller coaster. After a surprising 9-4 finish in 2021 that included an Outback Bowl win, Arkansas slid back in 2022 and bottomed out in 2023.

Last season’s 7-6 mark, buoyed by a late surge and a minor bowl victory, provided some breathing room for Pittman.

The 2025 schedule, one of the toughest in the country, with early matchups against Notre Dame and Arkansas State, offers little margin for error.

Pittman’s offseason moves signal urgency. He brought in quarterback Taylen Green, a senior transfer expected to provide more stability under center after last year’s inconsistency.

On defense, Xavian Sorey Jr. returns after leading the team with 99 tackles, while linebacker Stephen Dix Jr. is back after a strong 2024. Still, the SEC is unforgiving. Even with these reinforcements, the Hogs’ depth is thin compared to the teams projected at the top of the SEC.

“Pittman was among a small group of Power 4 coaches who entered the 2024 season on the hot seat but removed themselves,” wrote ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg.

But that reprieve may be short-lived. As one anonymous SEC coach told On3, “If they don’t go bowling, it’s going to be tough for Pittman to stay.”

The pressure is compounded by the SEC’s deeper, more competitive landscape. Texas and Oklahoma join the league in 2025, raising the bar yet again.

The conference hasn’t produced a national champion in two seasons, fueling a sense of urgency among traditional powers like Georgia, Alabama and LSU all picked by Steele to finish in the top tier.

The Hogs find themselves lumped with programs fighting for bowl eligibility, not championships.

Steele’s magazine is not alone in its skepticism. CBS Sports’ bowl projections do not list Arkansas among the SEC’s likely postseason teams and the oddsmakers peg the Razorbacks’ win total at just 5.5 for the season.

“This is a roster with some talent, but there are holes, especially up front and in the secondary,” noted College Football News in its own preview.

Pittman, for his part, remains bullish.

“We know what’s at stake,” he said at SEC Media Days last year. “Our guys have bought in, and we’re not backing down from anybody.”

Yet, the Razorbacks’ recent recruiting classes are getting better, but are still behind the SEC’s upper teams. The offensive line, once a strength under Pittman, has struggled with injuries and departures and the running back corps is young and unproven.

Fans in Fayetteville are restless. Razorback Stadium, once a fortress, saw attendance dip last year after early losses to LSU and Texas A&M. The hope is that stability at quarterback and a retooled defense can generate enough momentum to avoid another midseason spiral.

“We’re going to be better on both sides of the ball,” Pittman promised last year and they proceeded to get to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl. After a disastrous 2023 season, though, it was improvement.

The SEC’s new scheduling model, with no divisions and a rotating eight-game conference slate, means every week is a battle.

The Razorbacks’ path includes road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss, and home games against Texas and Missouri.

The Razorbacks can prove Phil Steele wrong and give their fans a reason to believe. If not, there will be a ton of questions.

HOGS FEED:


This article first appeared on Arkansas Razorbacks on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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