Phil’s Friday Forecast – Week 14

Week 14 is Rivalry Weekend! Wins can make you immortal. That is all that needs to be said!

Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State

The Lane Kiffin Decision drama is only made more difficult for him by Ole Miss winning the Egg Bowl and being 11-1 and a lock for the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss will win twice this weekend, once over their rival and another time by retaining Kiffin.

Iowa wins the Heroes Trophy over Nebraska

This game could go either way. These two teams are very similar. Iowa, however, has made their program by winning games like this over the last two decades, and as much as Iowa has thrived, Nebraska has struggled. Emmett Johnson could carry the Huskers to victory at home. He’s that good, but in a game this close, Iowa has done it before and has the advantage.

Georgia wins over Georgia Tech

In the best rivalry games, you throw out the records and their history outside of the bitter contest. Georgia Tech nearly pulled off the upset in Athens last year in a bunch of overtimes. A Georgia Tech win here wouldn’t be as insane as the SEC thinks, but Georgia is still the favorite, and rightly so.

San Diego State wins over New Mexico

A game to help decide the Mountain West this season, and the last matchup between these two teams while members of the same conference. New Mexico is the home team and will be eager to send SDSU out of the conference with a loss. San Diego State had their surprise loss to Hawaii, and that’s the only one they’ll take to a team that’s staying in the Mountain West on the road this season.

Texas wins the Lone Star Showdown over Texas A&M

People want to dunk on Texas, Coach Sarkisian, and Arch Manning for struggling with Ohio State and Georgia in 2024-2025. I strongly disagree with the quips that they aren’t that good and that Sark is overrated and Manning is a bust. I like them to pull off the upset at home. Texas’s underrated defense will lead them to this victory. While it won’t keep A&M out of the College Football Playoff or get Texas into it, it will give Texas tons of momentum going into a bowl game and into 2026.

Arizona wins the Territorial Cup over Arizona State

The Big 12 has moved around some rivalry games, like BYU-Utah, and doesn’t have them all on the last weekend of the season like most conferences. I understand that, but I am glad they kept this one in that spot. Both teams are 8-3 and ranked this season, and are making it look like this will be an important rivalry as far as the Big 12 conference race goes in the years to come. These two are so very similar this season, and not just in record. Both have September upsets that they likely win in a rematch, both have lost to Houston, and both have close losses to one of the top two teams in the conference. While this is in Tempe, I’m still going with Arizona because of Noah Fifita and his experience and leadership for the Wildcats.

Pitt wins over Miami

Too many factors favor Pittsburgh in this game. They’re at home, it’s going to be cold, especially for a team from Miami, and Pitt has been a different team since they changed quarterbacks. They’ve won six out of seven games since then. Fresh off their upset of Georgia Tech, they’ll get another against Miami and get to the ACC title game.

Jacksonville State wins over Western Kentucky

The winner will play for the Conference USA title next week, and the loser would need Liberty to upset Kennesaw State to make it a rematch of this game. Jacksonville State fell for their trap game after beating Kennesaw and before this one. They’ll be ready for this one, especially at home, and Cam Cook will have a big game and lead Jax State to victory.

Oregon wins the Columbia River Rivalry over Washington

This is an interesting game. A win makes Oregon a College Football Playoff lock, while a loss would put them on the bubble. Washington’s homefield advantage can’t be underestimated. In the past four seasons, they’ve only lost there once, and it was to #1 Ohio State. Oregon, however, has a defense that will get pressure on the quarterback and get them the win.

Oklahoma wins over LSU

The one game this weekend that SEC teams play, that is not a rivalry game, still has big implications. If LSU were to manage to pull the upset, Oklahoma would basically be knocked out of the College Football Playoff. If it were in Baton Rouge, LSU might have a shot. But Oklahoma is at home and has a defense that is just too strong.

Cincinnati wins over TCU

This could be an old-fashioned Big 12 shootout. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby and TCU’s Josh Hoover look to have big games. Cincinnati has the advantage, though, because of how well they protect Sorsby and his ability to make plays in the running game.

Virginia wins the Commonwealth Cup over Virginia Tech

While this one highly favors Virginia, they are 2-23 in their last 25 against Virginia Tech. But the Cavaliers are having a historically great season for them, while the Hokies are having a historically bad season for them. 9-2 Virginia gets the win at home over 3-8 Virginia Tech.

Alabama wins the Iron Bowl over Auburn

This shouldn’t be much of a contest, but crazy things can happen in the Iron Bowl. Especially with so much riding on it for one team, and the other team with nothing to lose. Alabama needs to win, and they’re in the SEC title game and like the College Football Playoff. A loss, and they’re out of both. Auburn could care less about their 5-6 record or trying to get to a bowl game, they just want ruin Alabama’s season. Even as the home team, it will be too much for Auburn to do.

Illinois wins the Land of Lincoln Trophy over Northwestern

This won’t change either team’s postseason destinations or impact the conference race. It’s just about the love of the game and beating your rival. Northwestern has exceeded expectations this season, while Illinois has fallen a little short of theirs. While anything can happen in these rivalry games, Illinois gets the dub at home.

Wisconsin wins Paul Bunyan’s Axe over Minnesota

A few weeks ago, this looked like a slam dunk for Minnesota. But since starting 2-6, Wisconsin has gone 2-1, losing to #2 Indiana but upsetting then #23 Washington and then #21 Illinois. No bowl destinations will be changed in this game, only bragging rights in the longest-played rivalry in college football. A series that has been played 134 times and is 63-63-8 right now. The Badgers get the upset and build momentum going into 2026.

Tennessee wins over Vanderbilt

I got Tennessee in this one, but I’m probably the least sure about this game than any pick this week. Yes, the Vols are at home and have a good offense, but neither of these teams have great wins. Tennessee hasn’t beaten anyone with a winning record this season. All eight of their victories have come against teams with a losing record. Vanderbilt has a few wins over teams with winning records in Mizzou, LSU, and Utah State. Maybe I’m just rooting for Tennessee to win and burst Vanderbilt’s playoff bubble, but the Vols get the upset.

BYU wins over UCF

BYU fans have justly complained about the College Football Playoff Committee’s lowballing them in the rankings. The Cougars, however, just need to go out there and win and ignore the noise. Win at home on Senior Day and get to 11-1. Let your wins and losses do the talking.

Ohio State loses The Game

Not that anyone reads this, but if they do and they’re Buckeye fans like me, they may hate me for it. The 2024 National Championship trophy tells me to take Ryan Day and Ohio State in a close one against any team and any game, except this one. If The Game in 2024 hadn’t happened the way it did, things would be different.

I’ve seen this program make too many unforced errors in this matchup. I can’t forget the defensive follies of 2022 and 2023, and the offensive blunder of 2024. In Coach Day’s defense, the coordinators whose units committed massive mistakes in those two games are both gone and haven’t done so well since leaving Columbus. But the Bucks stop with the head coach, who was not blameless in failing to secure wins that were right in front of him. Coach Day has made the mistake of trying to beat them where they are strong, and that decision has cost him dearly.

That team up north is going to attack Ohio State like no one has this year. They’re going to try to play defense with their offense. They’ll run the ball, something they’ve done well all year, to wear this defense out, keep them on the field, and eat up clock and keep the Buckeye offense on the sideline, cold and out of rhythm.

They’re going to depend on their special teams, where they have an advantage. Ohio State needs to try to make this a long-range running battle with their precision passing game. They’ll try to stop the run and force their opponent to throw to beat them. The team up north will try to make this a close-quarters battle, which favors them. If Ohio State stays themselves, plays to their strengths, and doesn’t play to the strength of the team that loves the urine yellow they call maize, they will win. The Buckeyes likely falter at that, and are baited into playing that team up north’s game again. The cheaters win again.

2025 Record: 154-90 (Overall Record Since October 2024: 256-133)