Playoff committee may relish these Week 7 college football games

Weinreb: I’ll always adore the way college football sneaks up on you — it crawls along for weeks at a time, lulling you into a stasis and forcing ESPN’s College Gameday to visit Lincoln, Neb. And then it hammers you with a slate that will exacerbate the carpal tunnel in your “previous channel” finger.

So let me sort this out by time slot, since I imagine that’s how the committee might lock in to the games that matter (and I’m now imagining what Ronnie Lott’s couch looks like. Or does he watch games while casually doing footwork drills?)

12 p.m. Eastern

You have the Red River Shootout/Showdown/Shenanigans between No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) and No. 11 Texas (4-1), which matters, as you said, because it will set the balance of power in the Big 12. Obviously, this matters more for Longhorns, who are desperate to show that they’re finally, actually back. They already have a “good” loss to LSU. 

It’s possible that a second “good” loss to Oklahoma might not actually lock the Horns out of the picture altogether; and the same can be said for the Sooners -- who lost to Texas in the regular season last year, but beat the Horns in the Big 12 title game to make the playoff. But this is a game that will shape perceptions of both teams -- and perception, in the committee era, is what matters. How will Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger (69.4 % completion percentage) and Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts (1,523 passing yards) respond?

3:30 p.m. Eastern

I’m keeping an eye on Alabama at Texas A&M and Florida State (3-2) at Clemson. It’s hard to imagine either will trip up, and even if they do, they both probably have room for at least one loss in what’s shaping up to be a pretty top-heavy field of playoff contenders.

But if I’m a committee member, I’m more curious to see what Wisconsin can do against Michigan State (4-2). The Badgers shut out Kent State last weekend, their third shutout of the season. They have the best running back in the country, Jonathan Taylor (745 yards, 7.2 yards per carry), and their schedule is backloaded with road games against Ohio State, Nebraska and Minnesota. I want to see if this is a team that can hang with the Buckeyes. 

7:30 p.m. Eastern

I am keenly interested in Penn State-Iowa (though I’ll have a second screen tuned to Notre Dame-USC, just to see if the Irish can keep it up after that narrow loss to Georgia). I’ve been following Penn State football for… well, pretty much my entire life. This is one of the deepest Nittany Lion teams I’ve seen. They’re good, but I’m still not sure if they’re 9-3 good or “Playoff potential” good. Iowa on the road is about as tricky a game as it gets — ask pretty much every decent PSU team in the 21st century. If the Nittany Lions get through it, and if quarterback Sean Clifford (1,443 passing yards, 66.7 completion %) plays well under pressure, then maybe this is the team that can upend Ohio State on the road Nov. 23.

8 p.m. Eastern

Florida-LSU. I can imagine either of these teams losing this game and still clawing back to make the playoff. I’ll watch it, but I just can’t see Florida being good enough to upend a seemingly elite LSU team at night in Baton Rouge. But if the SEC does get a second playoff spot — anything but an impossibility given the inherent weakness of the Pac-12 — the winner of this game could be in solid shape.

9:15 p.m. Eastern

And let us not neglect late night, when Boise State hosts Hawaii on its quest to become yet another undefeated Power Five team who will be completely ignored by the committee. I imagine by then Ronnie Lott will be fast asleep in his hyperbaric chamber.

What did I miss? And where do you agree/disagree with my attempt to read the committee’s mind?

Rooney: Allow me to nominate a couple more games that, while perhaps not eventual fodder for the white boards in the selection room, at least warrant a passing glance. We won’t have 16 undefeated teams remaining after Week 7, so some of the prominent one-loss teams still need to perform, even though they’re not necessarily playing elite opponents.

Despite the feeble nature of the Pac-12, No. 13 Oregon (4-1) could, and should, attract a few eyeballs Friday night. The Ducks have been an afterthought for me for most of this season. Once they fell to Auburn in the season opener, I fell back on my suppositions that Justin Herbert (1,341 passing yards, 71.6 completion %) is overrated, the defense is lackluster, and Mario Cristobal isn't the guy to restore the national prominence of the late Chip Kelly/early Mark Helfrich years. Now, I’m not ready to totally relinquish those notions, but (assuming some teams higher in the pecking order fall), it’s conceivable Oregon could still have a chance to be in the conversation at the end of season.

It appears that Auburn loss counts as a "good" one. The Ducks went on to issue smackdowns to Nevada and Montana. Their wins against Stanford and Cal weren’t exactly clinics in beautiful football, but the Ducks managed to grind ‘em out. And the defense I’ve found so underwhelming is actually rated seventh in the nation (10.5 ppg.).

At home against Colorado (3-2), Oregon should win convincingly and Hebert probably will buff his passing efficiency stats (he’s a respectable 13th in FBS). Unfortunately for the Ducks, they don’t play No. 15 Utah (4--1) this season.  So now they must hope No. 18 Arizona State (4-1) continues to impress, giving them a shot at a good late-season contest.

Similarly, Michigan is hanging around and doing just enough to not be written off. Its 35-14 loss to Wisconsin was pretty embarrassing, and, yes, perhaps Jim Harbaugh should spend more time working with his quarterbacks and less time in studio audiences of courtroom shows. But like Oregon's, Michigan’s defense has been sneaky good — the Wolverines allowed just one rushing yard against Iowa, and have allowed only three points in their last nine quarters.

This week, Michigan has a relative cupcake in Illinois (2-3), a team it has defeated the past four meetings. Not crucial to the committee’s calendar by any means. But with Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State still ahead — woof — the Wolverines certainly have a chance to hurdle the other conference contenders if they can run the table. According to ESPN’s football power index, Michigan has just a 0.1% chance to do this — but it’s certainly a schedule that, if conquered, would make for an impressive playoff resume.

I won’t quibble with your well-planned viewing schedule. I’m a bit more optimistic about Florida’s chances at LSU, though the Gators are even more banged up after Auburn, and the Vegas oddsmakers agree with you that a Tiger win is likely. 

Rooney: Do you foresee upsets that could dash playoff hopes?

Weinreb: The closest thing to an upset I envision would be one of those non-Ohio State Big Ten teams — Wisconsin or Penn State — falling. It’s not impossible to imagine Texas beating Oklahoma, though I’m starting to think this might be the best Sooners team in several years. And I just can’t see Clemson, Alabama, LSU or Georgia (which hosts South Carolina) losing this weekend.

But beyond those first-tier games, here’s another team worth watching: No. 22 Baylor (5-0). The Bears dismantled Kansas State, 31-12, last Saturday, and they have a roller-coaster Texas Tech team (which just beat Oklahoma State) at home this week. The Bears aren't ranked high because K-State game was their first legit win. But for a program that made its name under disgraced former coach Art Briles by putting up numbers, this team might boast one of the best defenses in school history: It had 15 tackles for loss against K-State last weekend.

Plus, here’s something to consider: Baylor gets Texas and  Oklahoma at home, in back-to-back weeks, in November. If Baylor spanks Texas Tech on Saturday, and coach Matt Rhule guides his team through tricky road games against Oklahoma State and TCU, it could be something more than just a spoiler.

And just for good measure, let’s throw in two more Group of Five teams to watch: Memphis and No. 21 SMU (6-0.). They may be undefeated when they play each other Nov. 2. SMU is putting up more than 44 points a game, and Memphis averages nearly 40. So even though they likely won’t come within sniffing distance of the committee’s portfolio, they’re here to entertain. SMU’s off this week, but Memphis has an intriguing matchup at Temple at noon Eastern on Saturday. If you have multiple screens and a six-pack in your refrigerated coffee table, this one might be worth watching.