Pre-Snap Preview: Washington v. Michigan, Prediction

Washington will enter its toughest environment of the season to date on Saturday. One hundred seven thousand-plus fans will pack the Big House for Big Noon Saturday. To leave with a victory, the Huskies will need to rely on their short to mid-range passing game to act as an extension of the run game. Michigan’s defensive front is among the best in the Big Ten, if not in the country. And Washington might again be without two of its starting offensive linemen. To put pressure on the Wolverine front, the Husky passing game will need to be the focal point of the offense. 

Previewing Washington at Michigan

Strong Defensive Front

“We got our work cut out for us, against Coach Martindale and Michigan,” Jedd Fisch said this week. “We know it’s going to be a very physical football game; they have an outstanding front.” The Wolverines have played four power opponents this season, including a road trip to Oklahoma. In those four games, Michigan’s defense recorded 25 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. It notched seven sacks and nine tackles for loss on the road at Nebraska alone.

The Wolverines rank 17th in defensive success rate against the run (33%). It’s allowing just three yards per rush on the season. Michigan’s best run defense performance was against Nebraska, where it allowed just 43 rushing yards. Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson is the Big Ten’s second-leading rusher. Outside of his game against Michigan, Johnson is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 117 yards per game. Against the Wolverines, he logged just 65 yards and 3.5 yards per touch. Wisconsin was held to 75 rushing yards, and Oklahoma’s running backs notched just 64 rushing yards against Michigan.

Offensive Line Updates

In terms of protection, Washington’s offensive line could be in a tough situation on Saturday. Fisch did not provide a tangible timeline for the injuries to left tackle Carver Willis or left guard John Mills. When asked about the chance either of them will play at Michigan, Fisch said, “I don’t know how much of a chance, but there’s a chance.” Based on that answer, it seems as though Max McCree and Paki Finau can be expected to start at left guard and left tackle, respectively. However, the availability report on Saturday morning might provide further clarity.

Since entering the game at Maryland to replace Mills, Finau has had the best pass blocking grade on the team, according to Pro Football Focus. The redshirt freshman has allowed just two pressures and zero sacks on 93 snaps in that stretch. Fisch described earlier in the season how he didn’t see any drop-off in going from Mills to Finau at left guard. Thus far, Finau has proven that to be true.

Left tackle has been more of a struggle since Willis was sidelined. McCree has played 131 snaps at the position since filling in for Willis late in the second quarter at Maryland. Since then, he’s allowed 11 pressures and two quarterback hits, but no sacks. The elusiveness of Demond Williams at quarterback has played a significant role in sack avoidance. Washington’s offensive line has allowed 50 pressures but has been responsible for just four sacks. The group has allowed 16 sacks on the year, but the others were not attributed to the offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus.

Running Back Consistency

In the last four games, the Husky running backs have averaged about 70 rush yards per game and less than four yards per carry. On his own, Jonah Coleman has not surpassed 70 rushing yards in any of the last four games. However, the production of Williams has helped bolster the run game. He notched 88, 57, and 136 rushing yards against Washington State, Maryland, and Rutgers, respectively. And a lot of that came from designed quarterback runs. Quarterback rushing yards still count, but the yardage production out of the backfield itself has not been established in about a month.

Run Game Extension

Facing this Michigan front seven on the road is not the ideal situation to expect a turnaround in running back production. Especially behind a Husky offensive line that is not likely to be at full strength. As such, Washington will need to turn to its short and intermediate passing game for use as an extension of the run game. Continuing to utilize Coleman as a receiver can benefit Washington greatly this week. Since the Washington State game, Coleman has accounted for 18 receptions for 197 yards. His average depth of target in that stretch is -1.2 yards. That shows how he’s worked as an outlet for the passing game, turning short passes into big gains. 

To go along with that, Washington will have an opportunity to take advantage of the intermediate passing game. Williams is completing 92% of his passes for nine or fewer yards this season. Approximately 56% of his passing attempts have been in this category. Williams is averaging 2.1 seconds from snap to release in this intermediate passing category. If there’s one area where the Wolverine defense has struggled, it’s been in pass defense. Michigan is allowing 44.3% passing success this season, which ranks 97th nationally. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava completed 78% of his passes for 265 yards and a couple of touchdowns against Michigan last week. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola tossed for over 300 yards against this defense. 

Prediction

For Washington to be successful on Saturday, it needs to execute these components of its passing game. Based on what we know about the strength of the offensive line and how the running back production has been trending, it’s difficult to expect the run game to be the focal point of the offense. 

But it needs to start fast. Washington has not scored a first-quarter point in its last three games. Slow starts against Maryland and Rutgers set up comebacks in each of the last two weeks. Playing from behind at Michigan won’t do the Huskies any favors. It’s also Washington’s first noon Eastern kickoff of the season. Last year, the Huskies struggled in this window at Iowa and at Indiana with two losses. But Fisch made changes to team travel, and the offense has shown tremendous efficiency when in rhythm. Washington can prove a lot on Saturday with its performance inside the Big House. 

Michigan – 30

Washington – 27