Michigan State's Aidan Chiles celebrates his rushing touchdown against Boston College during the second overtime on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Predicting Aidan Chiles’ Stat Line in MSU vs USC Matchup

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Carter Landis | Last updated Sep 20, 2025 1:00 PM ET

The Michigan State Spartans need a big win against the USC Trojans tonight.

For that to happen, quarterback Aidan Chiles needs to have a big game. He has taken major strides as a thrower this season, which has led to MSU being a more explosive offense.

The Spartans have scored 40 points in back-to-back games, which is encouraging, considering they only scored 40 or more in one game last season, coming against FCS opponent Prairie View A&M.

Chiles has thrown six touchdown passes this season after throwing only 13 all of 2024. It is fair to think he can eclipse that number soon.

Chiles and the Spartans will take on a solid USC defense, led by second-year Defensive Coordinator D’Anton Lynn. What will his numbers look like?

Let’s try to predict Chiles’ stat line tonight against the Trojans.

Completion percentage: 71%, 22/31

Chiles has taken easy completions and limited his risky throws this season, leading to a major increase in his completion percentage.

If the Trojans take away the deep ball, he will take a profit by checking down to the running back or throwing the easy route to a tight end or a shallow receiver. Don’t expect him to throw too many dangerous balls, as he has cut down on that tremendously.

Chiles will continue his efficient season by making the easy throws and the occasional big-time throw. His next BTT will be his third this season.

Yards: 268

Chiles has yet to eclipse 300 passing yards this season, throwing for 231 against Boston College and 270 against Youngstown State.

He won’t get to 300 against the Trojans, but he will have a productive day through the air. USC has a below-average secondary by the numbers (97th in the nation in passing yards allowed), and having Nick Marsh in the lineup will pay dividends.

Jonathan Smith will let Chiles air it out, and that will result in big-time numbers for the Spartan QB.

Touchdowns: 2

Chiles will connect with Marsh and Omari Kelly through the air.

He has been much better as a passer this season, especially when it comes to throwing touchdowns. He has connected with three different receivers on touchdowns (Marsh, Michael Masunas , and Jay Coyne).

When the Spartans get in the red zone, Chiles has delivered, and he will continue to do so tonight.

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This article first appeared on Michigan State Spartans on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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