Predicting Auburn's Home Matchup Against Georgia

The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry kicks off on Saturday night as the Auburn Tigers (3-2) welcome the Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) to Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers seek to snap a losing streak in the series that goes back to 2017. Meanwhile, Georgia looks to stack another conference victory.

Auburn needs to win this game. Forget the rivalry and the attached sentiment. Hugh Freeze needs a statement win, something to hang his metaphorical visor on. Arnold needs a standalone moment that justifies his portal leap

Pass Defense Concerns

This game will boil down to defense. With each program's strength residing closer to the line of scrimmage, the back end of the unit becomes of particular interest. Auburn's coverage allowed six opposing receiving touchdowns, while allowing a quarterback rating of 137.78, ranking 15th in the SEC. Similarly, Georgia doesn't boast a stellar group in their own right, surrendering eight scores through the air, four of which at the hands of Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar.

Beleaguered Group

No one deserves a break more than the Auburn offensive line, not because of their constant stellar play, but the opposite. Opponents have sacked quarterback Jackson Arnold a total of 21 times, including 15 times in the last two weeks. Georgia does not rush the pass well, totaling seven sacks. The Bulldogs do not generate any rush from the line. Instead, their linebackers account for six of the team's stops.

Prediction

Many quarterbacks can tell the story of the game that became their signature moment. For Arnold, this game lines up as that potential moment. Georgia's defense lacks the traditional stinginess that won national championships. Specifically, the lack of pass rush leads to poor secondary play.

Arnold gets the scoring underway with a strike to Cam Coleman. Georgia counters when quarterback Gunner Stockton marches them down the field, scoring from inside the 5-yard line. The scoring continues as both schools initially ignore the run game and attempt to recreate the Georgia/Tennessee overtime thriller from earlier this season.

Auburn cannot keep pace with UGA's offense. Similarly, the Bulldogs cannot stop Coleman, who finally sees the targets that a player of his considerable athletic ability should. With a combined 45 points scored at halftime, the defenses slowly improve. A sack fumble leads to a Georgia touchdown and the lead. Auburn leans on the RPO, most of which sees Arnold keep, breaking long runs into plus territory.

Running back screens on successive series result in points. Georgia's secondary looks exhausted, and the defensive line begins to fade. As a result, the running game opens up for the Tigers. As the third quarter ends, Auburn captures the lead that it will not surrender, only adding to it. Arnold accounts for three scores, while Coleman enjoys a monster day with double-digit catches.

Auburn rolls up at least 450 yards of total offense, leaving the stadium with a 33-29 win.

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