Predicting Louisville Football's 2025 Season

Louisville football is on the verge of making its triumphant return.

The 2025 season, which will be the second under head coach Jeff Brohm, will officially kick off in just 34 days. The Cardinals will host Eastern Kentucky to get their season started, facing the Colonels on Saturday, Aug. 30 at L&N Stadium.

With the season so close to getting underway, Louisville Cardinals On SI decided to give an updated prediction at Louisville's record for the 2025 football season. Take a look below at our game by game predictions, along with a final season win-loss record:

Eastern Kentucky (Saturday, Aug. 30)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 30-3 on Sept. 11, 2021 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 20-7-1

Summary: EKU might be an FCS school, but they are coming off of a solid season by their standards. Sure, they might have last their two FBS games by a combined 87-7, but they still went 8-4 in the regular season to earn an at-large bid for the FCS Playoffs. It might have ended with a first round loss to Villanova, but still.

As you can imagine, head coach Walt Wells' squad is going to look a tad different in 2025. Starting quarterback Matt Morrissey and running back Joshua Carter both graduated, while leading tackler linebacker Maddox Marcellus transferred to Virginia. A few solid defensive pieces remain, such as linebacker Braden Sullivan and defensive lineman Darrian Baker, but it's still a defense that ranked 81st in the FCS in 2024.

I won't give a super extensive breakdown here. Both Mississippi State and Western Kentucky laid the hammer down on the Colonels last season to start the 2024 season, and I fully expect Louisville to do the same in 2025.

Prediction: Louisville 52, Eastern Kentucky 7.

James Madison (Friday, Sept. 5)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 34-10 on Nov. 5, 2022 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 1-0

Offensively, JMU was good last season at 407.6 yards per game (47th in FBS), but there are some questions here. Starting QB Alonza Barnett might not be available after tearing his ACL on Nov. 30 vs. Marshall, so Louisville will likely face either UNLV transfer Matthew Sluka or Richmond transfer Camden Coleman here. Additionally, their top four wide receivers from last season are all gone, and the position as a whole is almost completely new. However, the Dukes are in great shape at running back. They return their top two running backs in George Pettaway and Wayne Knight, who are also their two leading returning receivers, and Ayo Adeyi is a former 1,000-yard rusher at North Texas.

James Madison was carried primarily by their defense, as their 321.8 yards per game was 23rd nationally, not to mention their 17 interceptions led the FBS while their 29 turnovers forced was third. However, they lost five of their six All-Sun Belt defenders to graduation or the portal. They do bring back safety Jacob Thomas, as well as other impact guys like defensive tackle Immanuel Bush and cornerback D.J. Barksdale, but this is a unit that was hit hard by attrition.

Chesney is clearly built to keep James Madison on their winning ways, and isn't afraid to go toe-to-toe with power conference competition. But between injuries and modern transfer portal movement, he's got a tough task on his hand right out of the gates. The Dukes are probably better than some ACC teams are right now, but Louisville should be able to capitalize early.

Prediction: Louisville 35, James Madison 24.

Bowling Green (Saturday, Sept. 20)

Last Meeting: First Meeting
All-Time Series: First Meeting

Summary: Bowling Green had a decent 2024 season, going 7-6 overall and nearly upsetting Penn State in Happy Valley. However, with spring ball about to start, head coach Scot Loeffler left to become the QBs coach for the Philadelphia Eagles. Going the notable former player route, the Falcons would later hire former Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George to take over.

BGSU's offense, which already was just 77th nationally at 377.4 yards per game, will look a lot different. Consensus All-American tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is off the NFL, their one-two punch at running back in Terion Stewart and Jaison Patterson has moved on, and former Mizzou and Indiana QB Connor Bazelak finally graduated. Former Notre Dame/Arizona State/Mizzou QB Drew Pyne will take over under center, and while he has one of the better offensive lines in the MAC to protect him, his top receiving option is former Florida tight end Arlis Boardingham. It'll be hard to imagine this offense taking a big step forward from last season.

Last season, like James Madison, the Falcons's defense is what kept them in games. Their 331.3 yards allowed per game ranked 32nd in the FBS, while their 185.4 passing yards allowed was 24th. The only problem? Because of the graduation and the portal (the latter of which was greatly enhanced because of a late coaching change), BGSU is losing a lot of bodies from last year's defense. How many exactly? Try 15 of your top 18 defenders by total tackles. George and his staff went defense-heavy in the portal, but at that point, there were not a ton of high-quality options for them to bring in, even for Bowling Green's standards.

Last season, like James Madison, the Falcons's defense is what kept them in games. Their 331.3 yards allowed per game ranked 32nd in the FBS, while their 185.4 passing yards allowed was 24th. The only problem? Because of the graduation and the portal (the latter of which was greatly enhanced because of a late coaching change), BGSU is losing a lot of bodies from last year's defense. How many exactly? Try 17 of your top 19 defenders by total tackles. George and his staff went defense-heavy in the portal, but at that point, there were not a ton of high-quality options for them to bring in, even for Bowling Green's standards.

Offensively, there is *some* potential for Bowling Green to move the ball on Louisville, especially since George was able to guide Tennessee State to the FCS Playoffs in 2024. Conversely, there's a *very* good chance Cardinals will absolutely light up a Falcons defense that lost a ton of veterans. Especially since they come off of a bye week.

Prediction: Louisville 45, Bowling Green 14.

at Pitt (Saturday, Sept. 27)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 37-9 on Nov. 23, 2024 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Pitt leads 11-10

Summary: "A Tale of Two Halves" is the perfect way to describe Pitt's 2024 season. Pat Narduzzi's bunch started the season at 7-0 and ranked as high as the No. 18 team in the nation, only for them to lose their final six games - including a six-overtime 48-46 loss to Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl.

Offensively, Pitt has a chance to be pretty good in 2025, as they bring back a handful of contributors to an offense that put up 32.9 points (31st in FBS) and 408.7 yards (44th in FBS) per game. Eli Holstein was a young revelation at quarterback, All-American running back Desmond Reid is second nationally in yards from scrimmage among returners (Oregon RB Makhi Hughes), and they have a solid core of returning wideouts - although they do lose WR1 in Konata Mumpfield. While their O-line ranked in the bottom-10 nationally in both sacks and TFLs allowed last year, part of this was due to rampant injuries.

Despite Narduzzi being known for his defensive prowess, the other side of the line of scrimmage is a vastly different story. Despite ranking fourth and sixth nationally in TFLs and sacks, respectively, the Panthers's dreadful secondary resulted in them posting the No. 81 total and No. 91 scoring defense. The good news? Pitt's four most impactful players in the front seven, including First-Team All-ACC linebacker Kyle Louis, are all returning. They do bring two starting defensive backs back in corner Rashad Battle and safety Javon McIntyre, plus added good depth in the portal, but this group will have take a step forward.

This game has some slight shootout potential. Pitt has a very underrated offense and will be at home (plus coming off of a bye), whereas Louisville has a top-three offense in the ACC. This will come down to whose defense can make more stops. While the Cards have questions of their own on that side of the ball, until the Panthers can prove theirs has turned a corner on the back end, they get the edge - barely.

Prediction: Louisville 34, Pitt 31.

Virginia (Saturday, Oct. 4)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 24-20 on Sept. 1, 2023 at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 8-5

Summary: Virginia did take a slight step forward in 2024, but that's mainly a testament to how lackluster the first two years of the Tony Elliott era were. After starting the year at 4-1 to show some promise, the Cavaliers proceeded to lose six of their final seven to finish at 5-7 and miss out on a bowl. Elliott's seat is starting to warm up.

Virginia's offense was barely ahead of their defense, but this was still a unit that only put up 22.7 points (107th in FBS) and 360.9 yards (93rd in FBS) per game. That being said, the Cavaliers did upgrade at quarterback, going from turnover-prone Anthony Colandrea to North Texas transfer Chandler Morris. The supporting cast of skill players is solid as well. Purdue's Jahmal Edrine, Notre Dame's Jayden Thomas, JMU's Cam Ross and returner Trell Harris make up a good receiving corps, although no one here stands out above the rest. At running back, Wyoming/NIU transfer Harrison Waylee has been productive, and backup Xavier Brown seems capable of taking on a larger role after being a backup. That being said, UVA still has one of the worst offensive lines in college football.

Defensively, far too often, Virginia just let teams march down the field, winding up with the 101st-ranked defense at 408.3 yards allowed per game. While it's hard to get worse, they could be in line for a bounce back on that side of the ball. A handful of impact players, such as linebacker Kam Robinson and safety Antonio Clary, are coming back. Additionally, Elliott and Co. have picked up a few solid defenders in the portal, like UNLV defensive end Fisher Camac and Army corner Donovan Platt. How it all comes together remains to be seen, but there's a chance they could at least be a middle-of-the-road defense in the ACC.

Elliott is heading into a crucial year three as the head coach at Virginia, so you know he's motivated to turn things around. There are some pieces to like for Virginia on both sides of the ball, and they could make headway against fellow bottom half teams in the ACC. The Hoos have given Louisville headaches since joining the ACC, but having to go on the road with so many new pieces is likely a little too tall of a task.

Prediction: Louisville 31, Virginia 17.

at Miami (Friday, Oct. 17)

Last Meeting: Miami won 52-45 on Oct. 19, 2024 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Miami leads 12-4-1

Summary: Last season, Miami was not only deep in the race to get to the ACC Championship Game, but also the College Football Playoff after starting the season 9-0. However, the Mario Cristobal-led Hurricanes then promptly lost two of their final three regular season games to end both discussions, and also dropped the Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Iowa State to finish 10-3.

It's no secret what made Miami such a force for 75 percent of the season. Led by Heisman Trophy finalist QB Cam Ward, the Canes finished No. 1 in both scoring (43.9 PPG) and total (537.2 YPG) offense. While Ward is now off to the NFL as the No. 1 overall draft pick, stepping in at QB from The U is Georgia transfer Carson Beck. While his struggles last season were well-documented, he's still an upper tier signal caller in college football. While Beck might not have a dominant WR1 like Ward had, he has a plethora of options to throw the ball to, such as returner Ray Ray Joseph, LSU transfer C.J. Daniels, BYU transfer Keelan Marion, and Tulane transfer Alex Bauman. Add to the mix one of the better offensive lines in the ACC, plus a run game that brings back Mark Fletcher Jr., and Miami should still have a prolific offense.

What eventually caught up to Miami last season is their defense, which forced their offense to routinely have to play from behind. They weren't the worst defense in the ACC per se, but giving up 327.2 YPG (27th in FBS) plus 25.3 PPG (70th in FBS) eventually came back to bite them. That being said, this is still a talented unit overall. This is especially true in the front seven, with guys defensive linemen Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, plus linebacker Wesley Bissainthe coming back. In an effort to shore up their secondary, Miami also hit the portal hard here, landing impact DBs such as Wash. State's Ethan O'Conner, Mich. State's Charles Brantley and Jax State's Zechariah Poyser - while also bringing back Romanas 'O.J.' Frederique. The U also fired Lance Guidry and poached Corey Hetherman from Minnesota as their new defensive coordinator.

This will be Louisville's first massive test of the 2025 season. Cristobal is still a subpar game day coach, and Miami might not be as star-studded as they were in 2024, but there's no denying that the Canes will still be immensely talented this season. Both teams will be coming off of byes, but with this game taking place on the road on a Friday night, I believe this is where UofL suffers their first ACC loss of the season - but it will be a close one.

Prediction: Miami 34, Louisville 31.

Boston College (Saturday, Oct. 25)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 31-27 on Oct. 25, 2024 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 10-7

Summary: Year one of the Bill O'Brien era up at Boston College had some peaks and valleys, but it was overall a decent year for them. The Eagles started 4-1 and ranked as high as No. 24, went on a three-game losing streak, then closed out the regular season winning three of their final four before losing the Pinstripe Bowl vs. Nebraska.

While BC's offense wasn't anything to write home about last year, putting up just 365.4 yards (90th in FBS) and 28.2 points (67th in FBS) per game, there is some continuity. Grayson James took over as the starting quarterback roughly halfway through the 2024 season, and the offense certainly performed better with him under center. The Eagles' top-two wideouts in Lewis Bond and Reed Harris are also running it back, as go-to tight end Jeremiah Franklin. The main snag with the offense is that their offensive line was just okay, and they lose their top two running backs. Though Jordan McDonald and Turbo Richard are a good RB tandem.

Defensively, Boston College was very underrated, and could be in line for improvement. One one hand, they will no longer have the services of Donovan Ezeiruaku at their disposal, as well as other top end pieces like Cam Horsley and Kam Arnold. On the other, three of their four leading tacklers, including leader K.P. Price are coming back. Not to mention that they bring back a lot of rotational players and pseudo-starters, especially on the back end. Already a top-five defense in the ACC last season at 23.8 points (53rd in FBS) and 360.7 yards (55th in FBS) allowed per game, BC has the potential to be pretty good here.

Boston College has certainly given Louisville plenty of unnecessary headaches over the years, and this team might just do the same. This is a home game and the Cardinals will look to bounce back from a loss to Miami, but I think it'll be closer than many realize.

Prediction: Louisville 31, Boston College 28.

at Virginia Tech (Saturday, Nov. 1)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 34-3 on Nov. 4, 2023 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 6-3

Summary: Last offseason, Virginia Tech was picked by many to be a dark horse ACC contender. Instead they were a tremendous disappointment, needing to beat UVA on the final week of the regular season to even make a bowl, and then still losing the Duke's Mayo Bowl 24-10 against Minnesota.

What plagued Virginia Tech the most was their underwhelming offense, which finished in bottom half of the ACC at 367.8 yards (88th in FBS) and 28.2 points (67th in FBS) per game. QB Kyron Drones took a massive step back in 2024, although new offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery could do the dual threat QB some good. The issue here is that his supporting offensive cast is just okay. VT's top returning pass catcher is tight end Benji Gosnell, and Wake Forest transfer Donovan Greene is a good wide receiver, but oft-injured. BGSU transfer Terrion Stewart could help carry the load for Hokies thanks to his talent level, but their offensive line hasn't improved much from last season's poor showing.

Over on defense is where Virginia Tech had a little more to offer last season, holding teams to 22.8 points (39th in FBS) and 363.0 yards (57th in FBS) per game. The only issue here is that the Hokies are losing eight of their top ten leading tackles, although their top two in linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are coming back. Head coach Brent Pry and his staff did a somewhat good job at filling holes on their defense through the portal, even bringing in high-regarded portal guys like Texas State edge Ben Bell, Eastern Michigan linebacker James Djonkam and New Mexico safety Christian Ellis. Still, time will tell if it will be enough to fill all the production and experience that was lost.

On paper, Virginia Tech seems like they *should* be a team that Louisville can handle. However... the Cardinals had plenty of issues with dual threat quarterbacks last season, Lane Stadium is a notoriously difficult place to play at (especially if it's at night), and Jeff Brohm always seems to have one head-scratching loss per season (i.e. Pitt in 2023, Stanford in 2024). Exit light, enter night.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Louisville 28.

Cal (Saturday, Nov. 8)

Last Meeting: First Meeting
All-Time Series: First Meeting

Cal's offense should have been much better than it was, but All-ACC caliber running back Jadyn Ott was limited by a nagging ankle injury. However, not only is he now at Oklahoma, nearly their entire RB room hit the portal. Not to mention that starting quarterback Fernanda Mendoza transferred to Indiana, and Cal might have to go to five-star true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, but they also have Ohio State backup Devin Brown. Leading pass catcher tight end Jack Endries went to Texas, and their top wide receiver in Nyziah Hunter is now at Nebraska - though former UNLV wideout Jacob De Jesus was a good portal pickup. Wilcox and Co. did the best they could to mitigate the losses, but an offense that already ranked 74th nationally (380.2 YPG) figures to get much, much worse.

The Golden Bears were actually respectable on defense, holding teams to just 337.5 yards and 22.3 points per game, both of which ranked 36th nationally. But attrition his this unit hard, as only six of their top 17 defensive players are returning, although that does include All-ACC linebacker Cade Uluave. Like a few other teams on Louisville's schedule, they did a decent job at bringing in impact guys in the portal, such as Liberty edge T.J. Bush, USF corner Brent Austin, BYU linebacker Harrison Taggart and FIU corner Hezekiah Masses. It might not be enough to fill every hole, but this defense does have potential.

Add in the fact that there is an ongoing standoff between Cal and their mega boosters over the role of GM Ron Rivera, the Golden Bears are not exactly in a great spot right now. Coming off of a tough loss, this is the perfect opportunity to right the ship.

Prediction: Louisville 31, Cal 13.

Clemson (Friday, Nov. 14)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 33-21 on Nov. 2, 2024 at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C.
All-Time Series: Clemson leads 8-1

Summary: Clemson started the 2024 season by getting their teeth kicked in by Georgia, but Dabo Swinney really knows how to rally the troops. The Tigers were able to not only make it back to the ACC Championship Game, they were able to beat SMU to earn a spot in the CFP, although it resulted in a first round loss at Texas.

Garrett Riley's first season as the OC at Clemson was a flop, but his second was a resounding success, resulting in the Tigers putting up 451.9 yards (11th in FBS) and 34.7 points (18th in FBS) per game. QB Cade Klubnik was finally able to find his rhythm, and it resulting in him generating Heisman Trophy buzz for the bulk of the year. On top of that, his top three receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore are all returning. They'll have to determine a tight end to replace Jake Briningstool with, but this should be one of the best passing attacks in the ACC. The only question mark on the offense is at running back now that Phil Mafah is in the NFL, especially since their offensive line was just average by their standards last year. Is Jay Haynes ready to be RB1?

But of course, one of Clemson's trademarks under Swinney has been stout defense, and the Tigers are in line to have another elite unit. How elite, you say Defensive tackle Peter Woods, defensive end T.J. Parker and cornerback Avieon Terrell all have first round NFL Draft potential in 2026. Also add in that other difference makers like Wade Woodaz, Sammy Brown and Khalil Barnes come back, and Clemson is loaded from head-to-toe on defense. Swinney's culture and talent retention on that side of the ball is unmatched in this day and age of college football.

Clemson will not only likely be the preseason favorite to win the ACC, they are going to be in the thick of national championship discussion. On paper, the Tigers are very much the better team than the Cardinals. It also doesn't help that Clemson is also coming off of a bye. However... these are the types of games that Jeff Brohm always gets his team up for. Not to mention that he's already beaten them in Death Valley.

Prediction: Louisville 24, Clemson 21.

at SMU (Saturday, Nov. 22)

Last Meeting: SMU won 34-27 on Oct. 5, 2024 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: SMU leads 3-0

Summary: This time last year, there were plenty of questions regarding if SMU could make the jump to the ACC. Considering they made the ACC Championship Game and earned an at-large berth to the College Football Playoff to finish 11-3, I'd say they answered that question with an authoritative yes.

Head coach Rhett Lashlee has been known for his offensive prowess, and while there were struggles early, the Mustangs got better on this side of the field when Kevin Jennings took over as the permanent starter. While he had a rough outing in the CFP vs. Penn State, he's still very much a deadly weapon through the air and ground. The only real question is who will step up around him, as running back Brashard Smith went to the NFL and his top two receivers graduated. That being said, R.J. Maryland is one of the best tight ends in the ACC, and returner Jordan Hudson plus JMU transfer Yamir Knight are a solid wide receiver tandem. Smith's shoes will be a lot harder to fill at running back, and because of that alone, it'll be hard to replicate last season's efficiency (429.5 yards and 36.5 points per game).

What really helped SMU make the next step was their proficiency on defense, as their 326.0 yards (26th in FBS) and 22.1 points (32nd in FBS) allowed per game both led the ACC by season's end. While the Mustangs do lose a fair amount of defensive production to the NFL, they also bring back a few of their top playmakers, such as safety duo Isaiah Nwokobia/Ahmaad Moses, edge Cam Robinson and corner Deuce Harmon. SMU also did well with bringing in defensive talent via the portal, with South Alabama edge Aakil Washington and Purdue tackle Jeffrey M'ba standing out.

As previously noted, Louisville certainly had their struggled against dual threat quarterbacks last season. Couple this with having to go on the road and trying to come down from the high of taking down Clemson, and things could stack against the Cards.

Prediction: SMU 31, Louisville 28.

Kentucky (Saturday, Nov. 29)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 41-14 on Nov. 30, 2024 at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky.
All-Time Series: Kentucky leads 20-16

Summary: The first half of the 2024 for Kentucky had plenty of ups and downs, as they nearly upset Georgia, then did take down Ole Miss in Oxford. But after starting 3-2, Mark Stoops' Wildcats did not win another game against an FBS school, ending the season at 4-8.

A sputtering offense was the main reason for Kentucky's woes last season, as their 330.4 yards and 20.6 points per game both ranked inside the bottom-20. It was primarily due to inconsistent quarterback play, but time will tell if Zach Calzada, who spent last season at Incarnate Word, is the answer here. Alabama's Kendrick Law, Clemson's Troy Stellato and return Ja'Mori Maclin are a solid group of receivers, but they're far from Dane Key and Barion Brown. Nebraska's Dante Dowdell is certainly an upgrade from what they had at running back, but we'll see if he (and Calzada) can even get going due to the fact that the 'Cats have an offensive line that is so bad it prompted their last quarterback to retire from football altogether.

Putrid offense spoiled what was actually a decent defense, as Kentucky held teams to just 345.5 yards (44th in FBS) and 22.1 points (33rd in FBS) per game. There are a few noteworthy pieces to this defense that return, such as safetyJordan Lovett, linebacker Alex Afari Jr. and corner J.Q. Hardaway. However, UK loses a ton of their top-end guys, such as Maxwell Hairston, Deone Walker and J.J. Weaver. A lot of players behind them are going to have to step up to the plate in order to maintain that side of the ball's efficiency.

Kentucky has been trending downhill for the last three years, and Stoops' relationship with the UK fanbase is tenuous at best because of it. Now that Brohm has gotten the rivalry monkey off of his back, and this game is at home, it's an easy pick.

Prediction: Louisville 35, Kentucky 17.

Season Projection: 9-3 (5-3 ACC)