Projecting Alabama's 2026 Over/Under Win Total

Steven Lassan: 9.5
Alabama is one of the most intriguing teams entering the ‘26 season. The roster is undergoing a major overhaul, but as usual in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide aren’t hurting for talent. That includes former five-star quarterback Keelon Russell (if he holds off Austin Mack to start), along with receiver Ryan Williams who aims to rebound after an up-and-down ‘25 campaign. The track record of DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb suggests this duo will find a way to manufacture production on this side of the ball.

However, the No. 1 concern for this team remains the biggest issue at the end of ‘25 with the offensive line and a lack of a running game. Even if Russell or Mack emerges as one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, more balance is needed to get back to the College Football Playoff. And with turnover on the defensive front, the overall play in the trenches is under the spotlight this spring.

I think Alabama will go 3-0 in non-conference play with wins over East Carolina, Florida State, and Chattanooga. But a nine-game SEC slate including games at Tennessee, LSU, and Vanderbilt, along with home dates versus Georgia, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Auburn is tough. We’ll see how this team looks in the spring, but 9-3 or 8-4 seems about right. I’d set the over/under at 9.5.

• Related: SEC Pre-Spring 2026 Quarterback Rankings

Kyle Wood: 9.5
The Crimson Tide's win total has been set at 9.5 in both seasons under DeBoer, and it's hard to see the oddsmakers moving off that mark after 'Bama fell short in 2024 and went over in 2025. Even though on paper this could be seen as a transitional season in Tuscaloosa, the standard that Nick Saban set is what DeBoer and Co. will be held to.

Despite the turnover on both sides of the ball, Alabama is not wanting for talent. According to a recent Athlon Sports analysis, the Crimson Tide have the most talented team in the country based on the last five years of recruiting rankings. Heading into Year 3, the makeup of the roster should now be largely in line with DeBoer's vision, including the two quarterbacks who he recruited.

With little question about talent or DeBoer's chops on the sideline, the question of the over/under boils down to schedule. 'Bama stands to benefit from a forgiving slate — at least by SEC standards, especially in the first season with a nine-game conference schedule. The Tide only play two other teams that made the CFP last season and just four that are ranked in Athlon's way-too-early top 25. That bodes well for Alabama to once again be right on the cusp of double-digit wins.