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ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis picked the Miami Hurricanes to win against the Florida State Seminoles. MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rece Davis predicts Miami-Florida State winner

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Matt De Lima | Last updated Oct 3, 2025 7:30 AM ET

The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles will renew their rivalry Saturday night in Tallahassee in a matchup with national attention and conference stakes. Miami enters the contest unbeaten, having leaned on an improved defense and steady quarterback play to climb into the top tier of the rankings. Florida State, meanwhile, is trying to regroup after dropping a double-overtime game on the road at Virginia, a result that cast doubt on its College Football Playoff hopes.

College GameDay host Rece Davis broke down the showdown this week on his podcast, ultimately siding with Miami to emerge victorious. Davis stressed that the Hurricanes’ defensive front and experienced quarterback Carson Beck put them in position to handle the challenge of playing at Doak Campbell Stadium. He described the setting as “uncomfortable” but said Miami has the right formula to earn both a win and a cover.

Davis also put this year’s edition of the rivalry into historical perspective, calling it one of the most significant Atlantic Coast Conference meetings between the two since Miami joined the league. He argued that the combination of both teams being ranked and the added playoff implications give Saturday’s game an intensity rarely seen in recent years.

Rece Davis Outlines Why He Picks Miami Over Florida State

When explaining his pick, Davis began with Florida State’s loss at Virginia, framing it as a game where breaks went against the Seminoles. He said he didn’t punish them much in his rankings, keeping them just ahead of Alabama, but still noted their inconsistencies.

Even so, when weighing Miami against Florida State head-to-head, he gave the edge to the Hurricanes.

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

“I think Miami is built to limit what Florida State’s offense can do,” Davis said. “They’re not going to shut them down — Gus Malzahn will always find ways to pop plays — but I think Miami, I’ve got Miami ranked No. 1. Doesn’t mean they’re head and shoulders above everybody else in the country.”

Davis said the key will be Beck avoiding costly mistakes that could hand Florida State short fields. He pointed to the pressure Miami can generate with Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, believing that forcing the Seminoles into longer drives will tilt the game in their favor. For Davis, that defensive presence, combined with solid offensive execution, gives Miami the advantage in Tallahassee.

Miami Hurricanes Defensive Front Seen As Key Against Florida State Seminoles

Beyond the tactical matchups, Davis emphasized the history and bitterness behind Miami-Florida State. He called it a rivalry built on contrasts, noting the two schools represent very different identities within the state but remain bound by a long series of high-stakes games. This season’s meeting, with both teams ranked and ACC positioning on the line, adds another layer of importance.

Fellow analyst Pete Thamel also spoke on the podcast, pointing to Miami’s makeup as ideal for a difficult road environment. He highlighted Beck’s accuracy on short throws, Fletcher’s production in the backfield, and Dawson’s willingness to stay patient with the run game. Thamel added that the Hurricanes’ defensive ends Bain and Mesidor are graded among the nation’s best and are well-suited to limit Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos, who thrives on broken plays.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Both Davis and Thamel agreed that Miami has the pieces to dictate the game physically. With Florida State trying to steady itself after the Virginia setback, the Seminoles must prove they can answer in the trenches and avoid letting Miami’s defensive line set the tone.

The Hurricanes and Seminoles will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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