Rice vs. Texas State Prediction: Armed Forces Bowl Preview

Why Rice Will Win the Armed Forces Bowl

Abell and the rest of the Rice offensive staff was forced to scramble their depth chart a bit after the departure of quarterback Chase Jenkins in mid-December. In his first full year as the team’s No. 1 signal-caller, Jenkins ran for 531 yards and five touchdowns and added 1,025 yards and nine scores through the air. 

Backup Drew Devillier also joined Jenkins in the portal, leaving freshmen Lucas Scheerhorn and Patrick Crayton Jr. as the top options under center. That duo combined to attempt just 10 passes and 16 runs in the regular season. Regardless of whichever quarterback is under center, expect Abell to lean on a heavy dose of running backs Quinton Jackson (811 yards) and D’Andre Hardeman (319). 

Considering the firepower on Texas State’s offense, Rice’s best chance to win is to shorten this contest and keep the Bobcats on the sidelines. The Owls’ ground game (213.3 yards a contest) should find success against a Texas State defense giving up 170.1 yards per game on the ground. 

Winning the line of scrimmage on offense and controlling the time of possession is a must. And on defense, the Owls have to do a better job of generating takeaways (just six in the regular season) and create more negative plays (60 tackles for a loss in ‘25).

Abell’s team has the element of surprise on its side and can throw a few new wrinkles at Texas State due to the late quarterback change. If the Owls establish the run and reel off a couple of long drives, then the Bobcats’ hopes of a third consecutive bowl victory will be in jeopardy.

Why Texas State Will Win the Armed Forces Bowl

Texas State’s defense (30.6 points a game allowed) is a concern entering Friday’s matchup. However, even if a shorthanded Rice offense is able to piece together enough drives and points to make this a close game in the fourth quarter, it’s hard to envision the Owls keeping pace.

Quarterback Brad Jackson helped to pace a Bobcats’ offense averaging 36.1 points a game and leads the Sun Belt in yards per play (6.7). In 12 regular season matchups, Jackson averaged 311.8 total yards a contest and scored 34 overall times, including 16 on the ground. He’s the catalyst for this attack, but Kinne’s offense also has ample playmakers at running back and receiver.

Lincoln Pare (1,022 yards) and Greg Burrell (590) lead the way out of the backfield and will help Jackson pound away on the ground against a Rice defense ranked eighth in the American Conference against the run. 

After working as a change-of-pace option in ‘24, Jackson showed big-time strides as a passer this season. He connected on 71.3 percent of throws for 3,050 yards and 18 touchdown tosses. In addition to a deep stable of running backs to rely on, the redshirt freshman is throwing to a receiving corps featuring Beau Sparks (80 catches for 1,113 yards), Chris Dawn (54 catches), and Kylen Evans (15).

Assistant Matthew Gregg is working as the team’s interim defensive coordinator for this game after Dexter McCoil Sr. was dismissed at the end of the regular season. Gregg’s group is navigating plenty of unknown with Jenkins opting out and a questionable run defense against a prolific ground attack in Rice. However, Texas State was held under 30 points just twice - Arizona State and James Madison - this year. It won’t take many stops for the Bobcats to win this game if Jackson and the rest of the offense keep up their regular season pace on Jan. 2.

Armed Forces Bowl Prediction: Texas State 38, Rice 20

Whichever team wins the battle of styles should come out on top on Jan. 2. Rice’s ground game should find success against Texas State’s suspect defense. But the inexperience at quarterback and firepower on the Bobcats’ offense is eventually too much to overcome.