Scout's view: Is North Carolina QB Drake Maye a top-five NFL Draft pick?

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.

Drake Maye, Drake Maye, Drake Maye — we will be hearing about him ad infinitum heading into the 2024 NFL Draft on April 25 in Detroit. Maye is the North Carolina quarterback who as a redshirt freshman earned ACC Player of the Year and wowed scouts. Many have him pegged as a top-five pick in the draft.

After studying every snap he took in 2022, I even dared utter Maye's name and the GOAT — future Pro Football Hall of Famer Tom Brady — in the same breath. That's because as of Nov. 16, 2022, Maye led the nation with six come-from-behind victories and showed off NFL-caliber skills. Besides Brady, former Falcons QB Matt Ryan  — who had an excellent 15-year career in the NFL  — is another comp who came to mind regarding Maye. 

On film in 2022, Maye showed maturity, business-like demeanor, poise, ball protection, smarts and top-notch competitiveness. His throwing mechanics were technically solid as well.

I recently evaluated all of his games in 2023 — one of the hardest evaluations I've done. Maye, who threw for 3,608 yards and 24 TDs last season, has ideal size (6-foot-4 and 230 pounds), football smarts, arm talent and athleticism to run around and make those Patrick Mahomes-like off-platform throws from various arm angles. He also can spread the ball around the field and has one of the best deep balls in this draft class. 

In college, Maye led an offense with a quick, energetic tempo, which is critically important. Like drummers in a band, QBs set the rhythm — something receivers depend on when running their timing-sensitive routes. Maye's 2023 release time was 2.79 seconds, per Pro Football Football Focus, which favorably compares to Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert at 2.8 seconds (18th in NFL), per Next Gen Stats. 

So, what's the problem? 

Three concerning factors that either surfaced or were confirmed in 2023:

1. Downward trajectory 

Maye is trending in the wrong direction. In 2023, his interception total increased from seven in 2022 to nine in 2023 and his completion percentage dropped from 66.2% to 63.3%. As pressure and expectations increased from 2022 to 2023, Maye — a perfectionist by nature like many QBs — gave off a strong vibe of frustration on film that wasn't there in 2022. I noticed he pressed on many throws and had problematic ball placement.  

2. Hot and cold 

Maye looked noticeably "off'" in roughly half the games in 2022 and 2023. For example, last season, he noticeably pressed in games against Virginia, North Carolina State, Minnesota, South Carolina and Clemson. He made apparent judgment lapses and held the ball too long when passing. In all, he threw eight interceptions in these games. 

In games against North Carolina State (57.9%), Virginia (50%) and Clemson (44.4%), Maye's completion percentage plummeted below his standard. 

3. High injury risk 

Maye tends to run the ball more like a power back than a franchise QB. He often ran into a defender rather than ducking out of bounds or sliding. Running isn't a hobby for Maye either, as he carried the ball 296 times the past two seasons. He can't run like this in the NFL or, like Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson in 2023, he'll miss significant playing time.

Bottom line

Maye is a good value at the right pick — certainly not to New England at No. 3, where ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. placed him in his most recent mock draft. That's way too high.