Scout's view: Is Tennessee QB Joe Milton III the next Anthony Richardson?

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL. He has also written for Sports Illustrated Jets, Lions and 49ers.

NFL teams are always looking for the next big thing at quarterback. Who will it be this season?

In the most recent NFL Draft, Anthony Richardson generated a lot of hype, and already this offseason, Tennessee QB Joe Milton III is drawing comparisons to the former Florida QB. Both are big — Richardson is 6-foot-4 and 236 pounds while Milton is 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds — and have insanely strong passing arms.

In theory, the loose comparison between the two makes sense given the lack of prior college playing experience both had before getting their chance to start. In Richardson's case, he had thrown only 66 passes before getting the starting nod last season. He started all 12 regular-season games before sitting out Florida's bowl. Milton, who transferred from Michigan in 2021, is penciled in as the starter at Tennessee this season. 

So, is Milton the next Richardson, who went No. 4 overall to the Colts?

Translating to the next level

Answering that question begins by understanding the differences between the college and NFL game. 

Not only is the size of the regulation football generally slightly smaller in college, but the pro game is faster, defenses are more complex and pass coverages are tighter. 

Prospects who succeed can make adjustments quickly to the pro game. They mentally process the game rapidly, get the ball out of their hands quickly (average release time 2.0-2.9 seconds) and have a knack for precision downfield ball placement while avoiding interceptions. 

Richardson's projection

Last season, Richardson had a tendency to hold the ball too long, and based on what I saw on game film, he often didn't seem to understand what he was seeing from a defense. This resulted in Richardson running a lot — 103 rushing attempts for 654 yards — and a low completion percentage (53.8). 

When plugging that completion percentage into ESPN's 2022 NFL QBs stats page, this hypothetically would put him near the bottom of the 61 listed QBs. At Florida last season, Richardson's erratic downfield ball placement caused him to throw nine interceptions in 327 passing attempts (an interception every 36.3 attempts).

I don't think his game translates well to the NFL, so he received a fifth-round grade from me. His release time is especially concerning. In my scouting report, I wrote: "In a league that prides itself in quick release times for QBs, Richardson shows a very inconsistent release time throwing the football. This alone is going to be a huge problem at the next level."

Milton's projection

I have a first-round grade on Milton, and it's not just because he has the biggest arm we've seen in the draft since Jeff George and he recently did this at the Manning Passing Academy.