SEC 2025: Contenders Stuck Outside CFP Picture

Missouri Tigers (Prediction: 8-4, 4-4)

In contrast to Florida, Missouri should have a great season due to its schedule being lighter. Although it’s more difficult to say for an SEC team, because of the amount of quality teams in this conference, Missouri does face Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas, all teams that should struggle throughout the season.

Personnel-wise, Missouri returns seven players on defense, a unit that ranked 17th in total defense. That unit got stronger this offseason with the addition of West Virginia transfer linebacker Josiah Trotter, who won the Big-12 Freshman of the Year award last season. Trotter will form a solid linebacking core with Triston Newson. Trotter’s commitment was overshadowed by former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula’s highly publicized transfer portal development, as he will be joining head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s squad. Missouri’s offense ranked 63rd last year in total offense, so Pribula’s work will have his work cut out for him. 

Back to the schedule, an upset special may occur early in the conference schedule against Alabama at home, but the last six weeks of the season could get tough. The Tigers face Auburn and No. 18 Oklahoma on the road, and No. 19 Texas A&M at home.

Oklahoma Sooners (Prediction: 8-4, 4-4)

There’s a lot of excitement around Norman, Okla., ahead of this upcoming season. Most of it has to do with new quarterback John Mateer, who had a terrific season last year at Washington State. Mateer threw for 3,139 yards, 29 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. However, that was against a make-shift Mountain West Conference schedule. Now Mateer will be facing some of the best defenses in the country week in and week out. Mateer does have the comfort of having three returning offensive linemen to protect him, and Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott, who has 2,597 yards in three seasons at Cal, but again, that was in the Pac-12.

The intrigue for No. 18 Oklahoma has to come from its defense, which returns six players from a defense last year that ranked 19th in total defense. Edge rusher R Mason Thomas posted nine sacks last season en route to earning Second-Team All-SEC honors. Thomas will be joined by two returning defensive linemen: Damonic Williams and Jayden Jackson, as well as linebacker Kip Lewis. 

Oklahoma should start hot with its lone challenge coming against No. 14 Michigan. When it comes time to separate the contenders from the pretenders in October, Oklahoma will have to prove it can rise to the occasion against Texas in a neutral-site game and No. 13 South Carolina on the road. Facing Ole Miss and No. 24 Tennessee should also test the team’s character if they can bounce back from potential two tough losses. The final three games are against No. 8 Alabama on the road, and Missouri and LSU at home to end the year. Like Florida, unless the committee factors in the strength of schedule, it will be tough for the Sooners to get in. 

South Carolina Gamecocks (Prediction: 8-4, 4-4)

A six-game winning streak to end last season was just what the doctor ordered for Gamecocks’ fans to buy back into a program that hasn’t had much success in the past 10 seasons. Two big questions No. 13 South Carolina will need to face are can quarterback LaNoriris Sellers can take a big step forward, and how the defense will fare without safety Nick Emmanwori, linebackers Kyle Kennard, Demetrius Knight and defensive tackle TJ Sanders. South Carolina returns only four starters: edge rusher Dylan Stewart and cornerback Jalon Kilgore, who will need to lead the way for the defense. 

A 6-1 start, is yours truly’s prediction for the Gamecocks, with the lone loss coming on the road against LSU. The final five games could feature a messy three-game losing streak against Alabama at home, Ole Miss and Texas A&M on the road. In the final two games at home against Coastal Carolina and No. 4 Clemson, I believe South Carolina pulls off the sweep.

Tennessee Volunteers (Prediction: 8-4, 4-4)

How impactful was Nico Iamaleava to a Tennessee team that made the CFP last season? On the surface, his stats were just 2,616 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. Those numbers are respectable, but not earth-shattering. The big hit is replacing running back Dylan Sampson, who was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Year last season. No. 24 Tennessee also returns just one starting offensive lineman (OT Lance Heard). Replacing Iamaleava is seventh-year quarterback Joey Aguilar, and replacing Sampson at running back is DeSean Bishop. Bishop is a walk-on back in 2023 and was put on scholarship ahead of this season. Tennessee has an intriguing offensive line that has talent with Heard, transfer Sam Pendleton from Notre Dame and freshman David Sanders Jr. 

What can get Tennessee early is its defense. The Vols ranked sixth last year in total defense. The Vols return seven starters on defense, and among them is leading tackler linebacker Arion Carter, and last year’s First-Team All-SEC honoree cornerback Jermod McCoy. Tennessee can win ugly early, but how long will that last?

Now, the good news for Vols fans is their conference schedule features four gimmees: Mississippi State, Kentucky on the road, Arkansas and Vanderbilt at home. Playing Georgia and Oklahoma, even at home, will be tough tasks, especially the former in week three. Against Alabama and Florida, two veteran teams, I’ll be interested to see how the young offense for the Vols comes together.

Texas A&M Aggies (Prediction: 8-4, 4-4)

After starting seven games last year, starting quarterback Marcel Reed threw for 1,572 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. I’d like to see what he does before I can confidently say he can consistently win in the SEC. Thankfully, No. 19 A&M had the 36th best rushing offense in the country last season, running back Le’Veon Moss, who returns for his Senior season, and was honored with being named to the Second-Team All-SEC. Texas A&M also returns four starting offensive linemen who should provide an impact on the pass blocking end as well for Reed. 

 Defensively, A&M will need to improve. Posting a 63rd total defense ranking, and with not too many notable starters on defense returning, it’s tough to imagine A&M being able to compete with the top competition in the SEC. 

Fortunately, for the Aggies, if they can come together defensively and gel as an offense in their passing and running game, the Aggies can at least finish .500 in a difficult SEC. Before conference play begins, Texas A&M will be tested against No. 6 Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind., with A&M returning 15 players, and I believe that will propel the Aggies to a win against the Irish. When it comes to conference play for A&M, like the teams above, feature a pair of gimmes with Mississippi State and Arkansas, but other than that, the Aggies will need to win a pair of upsets against Missouri and South Carolina. Missouri on the road will be difficult, but the Aggies will have just a bit better offense. So for Texas A&M, the second season under head coach Mike Elko will be a mixed bag, but one that should give fans confidence about where the program is heading.