South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech prediction: What the analytics say

South Carolina and Virginia Tech square off in this SEC vs. ACC clash to open the 2025 college football season. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

South Carolina enters its fifth season under head coach Shane Beamer, going 29-22 overall and 1-2 in bowl games under his direction, and he was named the SEC Coach of the Year after leading the Gamecocks to a 9-4 mark a year ago.

Virginia Tech is 16-21 under head coach Brent Pry and went 6-7 a year ago, including a stretch in which the team dropped four of five games to finish the season, including a two-touchdown loss in the bowl game, and was picked to finish 11th in the ACC in 2025.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech predictions

So far, the models are siding strongly with the SEC side of this non-conference matchup.

South Carolina is the current favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 70.9 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Virginia Tech as the expected winner in the remaining 29.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Gamecocks came out on top in 14,180 simulations of the game, while the Hokies edged out South Carolina in the remaining 5,820 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

South Carolina is projected to be 7.1 points better than Virginia Tech on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Gamecocks to cover the spread.

That’s because South Carolina is a 7.5 point favorite against Virginia Tech, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup.

And it lists the moneyline odds for South Carolina at -295 and for Virginia Tech at +235 to win the game outright.

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What the bettors say

A large majority of bettors are siding with the Gamecocks to take care of business against the Hokies in this season opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

South Carolina is getting 75 percent of bets to win the game by more than a touchdown and cover the spread against its ACC counterpart.

The other 25 percent of wagers project the Hokies will either defeat South Carolina outright in an upset, or keep the margin under seven points in a loss.

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South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech future predictions

Virginia Tech checks in at the No. 32 overall position in the Football Power Index college football rankings heading into the Week 1 games.

The model gives the Hokies a win projection of 8.1 games and a 9.1 percent chance to win the ACC, but a strong 95.3 percent chance to finish bowl eligible.

South Carolina earned a solid No. 12 position on the index’s 136-team rankings, one of nine SEC teams to place among the top 15 nationally.

The computers project the Gamecocks will win 7.9 games and have a 35.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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AP top 25 football rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (25)
2. Penn State (23)
3. Ohio State (11)
4. Clemson (4)
5. Georgia (1)
6. Notre Dame
7. Oregon (1)
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Miami
11. Arizona State
12. Illinois
13. South Carolina
14. Michigan
15. Florida
16. SMU
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma
19. Texas A&M
20. Indiana
21. Ole Miss
22. Iowa State
23. Texas Tech
24. Tennessee
25. Boise State

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How to watch South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech

When: Sun., Aug. 31
Where: Blacksburg, Va.

Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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