State of Pac-12 football: Hopeless or hopeful?

Rooney: Ah, if only I could muster the positivity to feel that current state of the Pac-12 is simply the less-well-written sequel to the Big Ten's struggles. The Pac-12's problems run deeper, and the thought of one of the conference's teams so much as sniffing a title seems laughable. You're right that on the surface, things weren't that terrible. Tennessee isn't a Pac-12 school, after all. Still, when you start to break down that 8-3 record, optimism disintegrates. 

The three losses are bad enough. Oregon State ... well, the Beavs haven't defeated a non-conference Power Five opponent since Wisconsin in 2012. Cincinnati embarrassed UCLA to open the season for the second straight year, and of course Oregon's aforementioned collapse at Jerry World continued the unfortunate trend of Pac-12 teams losing on the rare occasions they're afforded the national stage. 

Few of the wins instill much confidence. Cal sputtered to a win against UC Davis, but only after surrendering 10 unanswered points to open the contest and coughing up the ball four times. Stanford scored a whopping 17 points to beat Northwestern, as QB KJ Costello suffered a head injury that leaves him questionable for Week 2. USC defeated Fresno State, but lost starting quarterback JT Daniels for the season. Both Washington schools were fun to watch, especially Connor Halliday Luke Falk Gardner Minshew Anthony Gordon. The beginning of the Mel Tucker era at Colorado was promising, and Arizona State provided exciting moments. None of those teams really faced a program worth mentioning, however.  

I still believe Utah has the best shot to be in the playoff conversation down the home stretch. Despite a slow start against BYU, the defense looked stout, and running back Zack Moss picked up where he left off last season, with 187 yards and a touchdown. The problem is the Utes' schedule. The only two remotely challenging games will be against Washington State at the end of the month, and at Washington in November. 

Let's assume -- and I feel this is a big assumption -- that Wazzu and the Dawgs are each  ranked at the time of those contests. It still could be the same old story of the nine-game conference schedule, and the taxing nature of that lineup, resulting in the league's best hope for a contender burning out and falling in the 11th hour.

The reason for my hopelessness is not just about the playoff implications, but about the big-picture future, all circles back to the commish. Scheduling, officiating, revenue -- it's all become endless fodder for the sports radio cynics to criticize Larry Scott, who has frequently championed Olympic sports and global branding at the expense of football (and hoops, too). 

Rooney: Do you believe Scott can eventually restore public perception? If so, what's it gonna take?

Weinreb: I don’t pretend to fully understand Scott’s vision — and there’s no doubt he’s made some truly vexing business decisions that extend far beyond the scope of my rudimentary understanding. But in a way, I sort of get what he’s trying to do by diversifying the profile of the league beyond football. And here’s why: because this is not the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 or ACC. Here’s a link to 2018’s attendance figures -- you want to know how many Pac-12 teams landed in the top 30 in home football attendance?

One. Washington.

The SEC averaged nearly 74,000 fans per conference game last season; the Big Ten averaged more than 65,000. The Pac-12 averaged 46,442, a decrease of more than 3,000 from the year before.

Speaking as someone who attended a Big Ten school and now lives on the West Coast, I can tell you this: Football is not quite the same out here. I wrote a story a few months ago about the political battle over the future of football in California  which has long been one of the three elite recruiting states (alongside Texas and Florida). I think we could be in line for a protracted decline given the anxieties around the sport. 

What’s going to drive interest in Pac-12 football are marquee programs, which is why the conference has become a victim of its own parity. And the one program that has long carried the same sheen as those powerhouse programs from the Midwest and Southwest and Southeast — USC — is just a hot mess right now, even before the severe bummer of  JT Daniels' knee injury. USC losing its sheen affects the tenor of the entire conference. Mike Leach is a seriously wacky dude, but Washington State is never going to be your standard-bearer.

So that’s the big picture. But in the short term, I’m actually slightly more optimistic than you are — except about UCLA's Chip Kelly, who’s apparently transformed from a visionary into an anachronism over the course of a few years.

It’s very possible that Utah is the team to beat, but I’m still convinced that Chris Petersen is one of the five best coaches in the country, and Washington's schedule is very navigable. The Huskies blew out Eastern Washington in their opener, which may not seem like much, but that’s a very good FCS program that has caused problems for Pac-12 teams.. The toughest test might be at Stanford in early October (especially if Costello makes it back by then). But the Huskies also have Oregon and Washington State at home — and Utah at home, too, as you mentioned. That game, on November 2, already feels to me like the most crucial matchup on the Pac-12 schedule this season — and maybe the Pac-12’s best conduit to the playoff.

Weinreb: Let’s say this year does wind up being yet another lost cause. Let’s project a couple of years down the road: Are there are any programs you view with long-term optimism? Will Urban Meyer eventually surface at USC and rescue the conference? If you had to project the first Pac-12 team to win a national championship in the playoff era, what school would you wager your hard-earned ducats on?

Rooney: I get where the Urban Meyer-to-L.A. theorists are coming from -- it only takes one fake retirement to establish a lifetime of rumors (just ask Brett Favre). I agree that the Pac-12 benefits when USC is good, and furthermore, while I have no statistics to back this up, I'm a firm believer that the college football landscape is better when a majority of the blue bloods are contenders. A Meyer/USC marriage would appeal to a wide-range of fans, and certainly to the Trojan diehards, but equally so to the many folks who loathe all things USC. How fun would it be for the rest of the country to root against that team?

That particular arrangement seems unlikely with the current USC athletics department and administration, in light of the coaching decisions they've made over the last decade.  But I still think the conference program with the best shot to win a national title is USC. That's because, for all of its many embarrassments and foibles, it still has the potential to be the most alluring program in the league for a prospective coach. 

Glitz and glamour of the job and city aside, my primary argument is based on recruiting. So much of the best talent in the state comes from the greater Los Angeles area, and despite its struggles, the program remains a dream destination for those athletes. This is an old chart, but only USC could have the nation's top recruiting class following a 9-4 season that ended in a Holiday Bowl appearance. 

Over the past five years, the Trojans have continued to attract more four-star recruits than any other program in the league. That did change this year, when Oregon and Washington topped USC in that category and ranked higher in overall class strength. Which brings me back to the Urban Meyer conversation. 

Since Pete Carroll departed, USC has inexplicably looked no further in their coaching search than the pool of current and former USC assistants. I don't understand why. Unless Helton wages a miraculous turnaround this season, the Trojans are now on strike 3 when it come to that formula. With the pool of talent that USC continues to attract year after year, the right coach could have success pretty quickly. 

So when Lynn Swann (or whoever his seemingly inevitable successor is as athletic director) finally throws some money at the problem and makes an attractive offer to a high-profile coach with a proven record, I can see USC being an instant playoff favorite. This relative optimism is more of the long-term variety. I don't see a championship run this year for the good ol' Conference of Champions.